Rapid Intensification Guidance WP102023 230831 06UTC Storm Located at : 21.20 132.00 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]: 60. Initial Conditions: Predictor Value Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt] 60.00 N 12-H DELTA VMAX [kt] 10.00 F CORE SIZE [km] 2.20 F CONVECTION <-50C [%] 72.00 N CONVECTION <-60C [%] 53.00 N IR CORE SYMMETRY [K] 9.60 F TC SIZE [%] 110.00 N Forecast Conditions: Predictor Value Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 Wind Shear [kt] 13.9 14.9 16.8 16.0 21.1 21.2 19.1 19.4 F F F F N N N N Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2] 40.0 40.0 47.0 52.0 47.0 70.0 100.0 79.0 N N N N N N F N Potential [kt] 105.0 105.0 105.0 105.0 105.0 105.0 105.0 105.0 N N N N N N N N 200mb Divg [10^6/s] 39.0 64.0 47.0 46.0 19.0 20.0 2.0 86.0 N N N N U U U F Humidity 700-500 hPa 70.0 72.0 73.0 75.0 78.0 78.0 75.0 74.0 N N N F F F F N T Advectio [10^6 K/s] -1.0 -1.0 -2.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 2.0 0.0 N N N N N N N N Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification Thresholds LDA-Method LRE-Method CONSENSUS 20kt / 12h 31.7% 30.8% 31.2% 25kt / 24h 55.6% 72.3% 64.0% 30kt / 24h 44.8% 69.0% 56.9% 35kt / 24h 42.6% 69.0% 55.8% 40kt / 24h 27.4% 67.8% 47.6% 45kt / 36h 40.0% 56.7% 48.4% 55kt / 36h 0.0% 38.2% 19.1% 55kt / 48h 27.4% 38.2% 32.8% 70kt / 48h 6.9% 17.8% 12.4% 65kt / 72h 18.2% 29.3% 23.7% Convective Decapatation Guidance For SSTs greater than 27.5C Current sst along the future track = 29.76 WP102023 230831 06UTC Storm Located at : 21.20 132.00 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]: 60. Initial Conditions: Predictor Value Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt] 60.00 U 12-H DELTA VMAX [kt] 10.00 U CORE SIZE [km] 2.20 F TC SIZE [%] 110.00 N Forecast Conditions: Predictor Value Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 Wind Shear [kt] 13.9 14.9 16.8 16.0 21.1 21.2 19.1 19.4 U U N U N N N N Humidity 700-500 hPa 70.0 72.0 73.0 75.0 78.0 78.0 75.0 74.0 N N N U U U U N T Advectio [10^6 K/s] -1.0 -1.0 -2.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 2.0 0.0 N N N N N N N N Probabilities[%] of Storm Decapitation Thresholds LDA-Method LRE-Method CONSENSUS -30kt / 24h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%