Rapid Intensification Guidance

 WP102023 230831 12UTC
 Storm Located at           :     21.70    131.40
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    65.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    65.00             N
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]    15.00             F
 CORE SIZE        [km]     2.20             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     61.00             N
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]     40.00             N
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      9.80             F
 TC SIZE          [%]     95.00             N


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        15.2  22.5  23.4  32.3  23.6  12.5  14.4  20.2  F  N  N  U  N  F  F  N
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]   35.0  39.0  46.0  48.0  58.0 112.0  71.0  60.0  U  U  N  N  N  F  N  N
 Potential [kt]        100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]    64.0  44.0  58.0  30.0  11.0  13.0   5.0  -1.0  N  N  N  N  U  U  U  U
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   71.0  68.0  70.0  72.0  73.0  74.0  72.0  71.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]  -2.0   0.0  -2.0  -7.0  -4.0  -2.0  -9.0  15.0  N  N  N  F  F  N  F  U


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h       51.3%       31.0%       41.2%
 25kt / 24h       51.2%       60.4%       55.8%
 30kt / 24h       43.7%       54.0%       48.9%
 35kt / 24h       39.9%       54.0%       47.0%
 40kt / 24h       37.9%       53.7%       45.8%
 45kt / 36h       32.1%       37.7%       34.9%
 55kt / 36h        0.0%       19.6%        9.8%
 55kt / 48h       22.6%       30.4%       26.5%
 70kt / 48h        7.2%       14.1%       10.6%
 65kt / 72h       11.3%       22.0%       16.7%
 Convective Decapatation Guidance

 For SSTs greater than 27.5C

 Current sst along the future track = 29.70

 WP102023 230831 12UTC
 Storm Located at           :     21.70    131.40
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    65.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    65.00             N
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]    15.00             U
 CORE SIZE        [km]     2.20             F
 TC SIZE          [%]     95.00             N


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        15.2  22.5  23.4  32.3  23.6  12.5  14.4  20.2  U  N  N  N  N  U  U  N
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   71.0  68.0  70.0  72.0  73.0  74.0  72.0  71.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]  -2.0   0.0  -2.0  -7.0  -4.0  -2.0  -9.0  15.0  N  N  N  U  U  N  U  F


    Probabilities[%] of Storm Decapitation
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 -30kt / 24h        0.0%        0.1%        0.0%