Rapid Intensification Guidance

 WP102023 230831 18UTC
 Storm Located at           :     22.10    130.10
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    65.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    65.00             N
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]    10.00             F
 CORE SIZE        [km]     2.20             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     77.00             N
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]     68.00             F
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      9.70             F
 TC SIZE          [%]    105.00             N


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        31.5  32.4  32.8  30.3  30.1  33.7  35.7  45.0  U  U  U  N  N  U  U VU
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]   39.0  44.0  48.0  52.0  52.0  50.0  73.0  77.0  U  N  N  N  N  N  N  N
 Potential [kt]        100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]    33.0  45.0  31.0  37.0  62.0  45.0  49.0  31.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   64.0  68.0  69.0  69.0  69.0  70.0  71.0  73.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]   0.0   1.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   5.0   4.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h       22.4%       13.1%       17.7%
 25kt / 24h       28.4%       38.2%       33.3%
 30kt / 24h       20.6%       29.6%       25.1%
 35kt / 24h       20.6%       29.6%       25.1%
 40kt / 24h       12.8%       28.2%       20.5%
 45kt / 36h       15.7%       18.6%       17.2%
 55kt / 36h        0.0%        6.8%        3.4%
 55kt / 48h        5.3%        9.2%        7.3%
 70kt / 48h        0.3%        2.4%        1.4%
 65kt / 72h        1.3%        3.0%        2.1%
 Convective Decapatation Guidance

 For SSTs greater than 27.5C

 Current sst along the future track = 29.50

 WP102023 230831 18UTC
 Storm Located at           :     22.10    130.10
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    65.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    65.00             N
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]    10.00             U
 CORE SIZE        [km]     2.20             F
 TC SIZE          [%]    105.00             N


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        31.5  32.4  32.8  30.3  30.1  33.7  35.7  45.0  N  N  F  N  N  F  F VF
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   64.0  68.0  69.0  69.0  69.0  70.0  71.0  73.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]   0.0   1.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   5.0   4.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N


    Probabilities[%] of Storm Decapitation
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 -30kt / 24h        0.0%        0.2%        0.1%