Rapid Intensification Guidance

 WP102023 230901 00UTC
 Storm Located at           :     22.00    129.60
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    70.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    70.00             N
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]     5.00             N
 CORE SIZE        [km]     3.00             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     95.00             F
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]     83.00             F
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]     10.00             F
 TC SIZE          [%]    113.00             N


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        24.2  23.5  26.5  29.2  13.3  17.7  17.5  18.7  N  N  N  N  F  F  F  N
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]   48.0  51.0  48.0  43.0  89.0  87.0  77.0  30.0  N  N  N  N  F  N  N  U
 Potential [kt]         95.0  95.0  95.0  95.0  95.0  95.0  95.0  95.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]    56.0  14.0  14.0  34.0 -15.0  10.0  22.0  36.0  N  U  U  N  U  U  U  N
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   68.0  66.0  67.0  69.0  67.0  65.0  61.0  74.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]   0.0  -4.0  -2.0  -2.0  -5.0  -5.0   5.0  -2.0  N  F  N  N  F  F  N  N


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h       24.9%       20.3%       22.6%
 25kt / 24h       37.1%       49.8%       43.4%
 30kt / 24h       28.0%       46.7%       37.4%
 35kt / 24h       28.0%       46.7%       37.4%
 40kt / 24h       13.6%       43.3%       28.5%
 45kt / 36h       27.9%       30.8%       29.4%
 55kt / 36h        0.0%       15.2%        7.6%
 55kt / 48h       21.5%       26.6%       24.0%
 70kt / 48h        3.5%        7.5%        5.5%
 65kt / 72h        8.1%       12.6%       10.4%
 Convective Decapatation Guidance

 For SSTs greater than 27.5C

 Current sst along the future track = 29.50

 WP102023 230901 00UTC
 Storm Located at           :     22.00    129.60
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    70.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    70.00             N
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]     5.00             N
 CORE SIZE        [km]     3.00             F
 TC SIZE          [%]    113.00             N


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        24.2  23.5  26.5  29.2  13.3  17.7  17.5  18.7  N  N  N  N  U  N  N  N
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   68.0  66.0  67.0  69.0  67.0  65.0  61.0  74.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]   0.0  -4.0  -2.0  -2.0  -5.0  -5.0   5.0  -2.0  N  U  N  N  U  U  N  N


    Probabilities[%] of Storm Decapitation
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 -30kt / 24h        0.0%        0.2%        0.1%