Rapid Intensification Guidance WP102023 230901 06UTC Storm Located at : 22.10 128.50 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]: 75. Initial Conditions: Predictor Value Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt] 75.00 N 12-H DELTA VMAX [kt] 10.00 F CORE SIZE [km] 2.20 F CONVECTION <-50C [%] 95.00 F CONVECTION <-60C [%] 83.00 F IR CORE SYMMETRY [K] 10.00 F TC SIZE [%] 114.00 N Forecast Conditions: Predictor Value Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 Wind Shear [kt] 23.1 25.7 23.1 22.4 15.1 23.5 19.4 27.1 N N N N F N N N Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2] 53.0 50.0 45.0 56.0 91.0 82.0 35.0 45.0 N N N N F N U N Potential [kt] 90.0 90.0 90.0 90.0 90.0 90.0 90.0 90.0 N N N N N N N N 200mb Divg [10^6/s] 30.0 14.0 7.0 2.0 23.0 17.0 26.0 43.0 N U U U U U U N Humidity 700-500 hPa 67.0 67.0 67.0 67.0 67.0 67.0 63.0 64.0 N N N N N N N N T Advectio [10^6 K/s] -4.0 -1.0 -1.0 -1.0 -4.0 0.0 0.0 -1.0 F N N N F N N N Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification Thresholds LDA-Method LRE-Method CONSENSUS 20kt / 12h 54.5% 32.5% 43.5% 25kt / 24h 56.9% 66.0% 61.5% 30kt / 24h 56.9% 66.0% 61.5% 35kt / 24h 56.9% 66.0% 61.5% 40kt / 24h 31.0% 62.9% 46.9% 45kt / 36h 43.0% 46.5% 44.7% 55kt / 36h 0.0% 29.1% 14.6% 55kt / 48h 26.5% 34.4% 30.5% 70kt / 48h 5.4% 11.0% 8.2% 65kt / 72h 7.9% 12.8% 10.3% Convective Decapatation Guidance For SSTs greater than 27.5C Current sst along the future track = 29.42 WP102023 230901 06UTC Storm Located at : 22.10 128.50 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]: 75. Initial Conditions: Predictor Value Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt] 75.00 N 12-H DELTA VMAX [kt] 10.00 U CORE SIZE [km] 2.20 F TC SIZE [%] 114.00 N Forecast Conditions: Predictor Value Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 Wind Shear [kt] 23.1 25.7 23.1 22.4 15.1 23.5 19.4 27.1 N N N N U N N N Humidity 700-500 hPa 67.0 67.0 67.0 67.0 67.0 67.0 63.0 64.0 N N N N N N N N T Advectio [10^6 K/s] -4.0 -1.0 -1.0 -1.0 -4.0 0.0 0.0 -1.0 U N N N U N N N Probabilities[%] of Storm Decapitation Thresholds LDA-Method LRE-Method CONSENSUS -30kt / 24h 0.0% 0.2% 0.1%