Rapid Intensification Guidance

 WP102023 230901 12UTC
 Storm Located at           :     22.10    127.70
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    75.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    75.00             N
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]     5.00             N
 CORE SIZE        [km]     2.20             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     83.00             F
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]     72.00             F
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]     10.00             F
 TC SIZE          [%]    112.00             N


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        31.3  32.9  25.1  28.8  35.1  34.5  37.9  30.8  U  U  N  N  U  U  U  U
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]   49.0  46.0  52.0  70.0  87.0  75.0  69.0  65.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N
 Potential [kt]         90.0  90.0  90.0  90.0  90.0  90.0  90.0  90.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]     8.0  26.0  36.0  29.0  44.0  50.0  33.0  33.0  U  U  N  N  N  N  N  N
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   67.0  66.0  68.0  67.0  68.0  65.0  66.0  65.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]   0.0   0.0   0.0  -2.0   0.0  -2.0   2.0   4.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h       21.5%       11.8%       16.6%
 25kt / 24h       28.2%       36.3%       32.2%
 30kt / 24h       25.8%       31.5%       28.6%
 35kt / 24h       25.8%       31.5%       28.6%
 40kt / 24h       11.5%       29.5%       20.5%
 45kt / 36h       15.7%       11.1%       13.4%
 55kt / 36h        0.0%        3.6%        1.8%
 55kt / 48h        5.0%        6.8%        5.9%
 70kt / 48h        0.2%        1.1%        0.7%
 65kt / 72h        1.7%        1.6%        1.7%
 Convective Decapatation Guidance

 For SSTs greater than 27.5C

 Current sst along the future track = 29.38

 WP102023 230901 12UTC
 Storm Located at           :     22.10    127.70
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    75.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    75.00             N
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]     5.00             N
 CORE SIZE        [km]     2.20             F
 TC SIZE          [%]    112.00             N


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        31.3  32.9  25.1  28.8  35.1  34.5  37.9  30.8  N  F  N  N  F  F  F  N
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   67.0  66.0  68.0  67.0  68.0  65.0  66.0  65.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]   0.0   0.0   0.0  -2.0   0.0  -2.0   2.0   4.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N


    Probabilities[%] of Storm Decapitation
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 -30kt / 24h        0.0%        0.4%        0.2%