Rapid Intensification Guidance

 WP102023 230901 18UTC
 Storm Located at           :     21.90    127.10
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    80.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    80.00             N
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]     5.00             N
 CORE SIZE        [km]     2.20             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     70.00             N
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]     62.00             N
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      9.70             F
 TC SIZE          [%]    104.00             N


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        28.6  22.6  18.0  16.7  20.5  26.7  21.6  12.4  N  N  F  F  N  N  N  F
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]   45.0  56.0  81.0  94.0  72.0   3.0  30.0  25.0  N  N  N  F  N  U  U  U
 Potential [kt]         85.0  85.0  85.0  85.0  85.0  85.0  85.0  79.6  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]    44.0  45.0  14.0  17.0  30.0  33.0  73.0  -9.0  N  N  U  U  N  N  N  U
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   66.0  65.0  67.0  67.0  68.0  68.0  66.0  63.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]  -2.0  -1.0  -2.0  -4.0  -2.0   2.0  -2.0   1.0  N  N  N  F  N  N  N  N


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h       21.9%       10.8%       16.3%
 25kt / 24h       34.5%       41.3%       37.9%
 30kt / 24h       29.7%       35.5%       32.6%
 35kt / 24h       27.7%       35.5%       31.6%
 40kt / 24h       18.0%       34.5%       26.3%
 45kt / 36h       36.2%       18.6%       27.4%
 55kt / 36h        0.0%        7.5%        3.7%
 55kt / 48h       11.6%       10.7%       11.2%
 70kt / 48h        2.2%        2.4%        2.3%
 65kt / 72h        4.1%        4.4%        4.2%
 Convective Decapatation Guidance

 For SSTs greater than 27.5C

 Current sst along the future track = 29.42

 WP102023 230901 18UTC
 Storm Located at           :     21.90    127.10
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    80.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    80.00             N
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]     5.00             N
 CORE SIZE        [km]     2.20             F
 TC SIZE          [%]    104.00             N


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        28.6  22.6  18.0  16.7  20.5  26.7  21.6  12.4  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  U
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   66.0  65.0  67.0  67.0  68.0  68.0  66.0  63.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]  -2.0  -1.0  -2.0  -4.0  -2.0   2.0  -2.0   1.0  N  N  N  U  N  N  N  N


    Probabilities[%] of Storm Decapitation
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 -30kt / 24h        0.0%        0.3%        0.2%