Rapid Intensification Guidance

 WP102023 230902 00UTC
 Storm Located at           :     22.00    126.40
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    85.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    85.00             N
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]    10.00             F
 CORE SIZE        [km]     3.00             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     86.00             F
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]     71.00             F
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]     10.00             F
 TC SIZE          [%]    108.00             N


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        20.2  17.7  15.4  22.7  23.4  23.5  18.1  15.9  N  F  F  N  N  N  F  F
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]   56.0  79.0  88.0  88.0  51.0  75.0  26.0  22.0  N  N  F  F  N  N  U  U
 Potential [kt]         80.0  80.0  80.0  80.0  80.0  80.0  80.0  67.9  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  U
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]    21.0 -10.0  12.0  25.0  27.0  69.0   0.0  30.0  U  U  U  U  U  N  U  N
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   65.0  72.0  72.0  73.0  72.0  74.0  72.0  74.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]  -2.0   0.0  -5.0  -5.0   1.0   2.0   3.0  -1.0  N  N  F  F  N  N  N  N


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h       49.6%       27.7%       38.6%
 25kt / 24h       51.0%       57.7%       54.4%
 30kt / 24h       51.0%       56.6%       53.8%
 35kt / 24h       51.0%       56.6%       53.8%
 40kt / 24h       28.1%       54.0%       41.1%
 45kt / 36h       49.9%       34.3%       42.1%
 55kt / 36h        0.0%       19.2%        9.6%
 55kt / 48h       22.4%       17.9%       20.1%
 70kt / 48h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 65kt / 72h        3.9%        7.3%        5.6%
 Convective Decapatation Guidance

 For SSTs greater than 27.5C

 Current sst along the future track = 29.88

 WP102023 230902 00UTC
 Storm Located at           :     22.00    126.40
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    85.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    85.00             N
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]    10.00             U
 CORE SIZE        [km]     3.00             F
 TC SIZE          [%]    108.00             N


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        20.2  17.7  15.4  22.7  23.4  23.5  18.1  15.9  N  N  U  N  N  N  N  U
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   65.0  72.0  72.0  73.0  72.0  74.0  72.0  74.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]  -2.0   0.0  -5.0  -5.0   1.0   2.0   3.0  -1.0  N  N  U  U  N  N  N  N


    Probabilities[%] of Storm Decapitation
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 -30kt / 24h        0.0%        0.2%        0.1%