Rapid Intensification Guidance

 WP102023 230902 06UTC
 Storm Located at           :     22.40    125.40
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    85.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    85.00             N
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]     5.00             N
 CORE SIZE        [km]     2.20             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     97.00             F
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]     84.00             F
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]     10.00             F
 TC SIZE          [%]    112.00             N


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        17.1  15.5  19.3  23.2  22.1  18.3  13.3  15.0  F  F  N  N  N  F  F  F
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]   84.0  94.0  84.0  61.0  76.0  26.0  23.0  21.0  N  F  N  N  N  U  U  U
 Potential [kt]         80.0  80.0  80.0  80.0  80.0  80.0  70.1  61.5  N  N  N  N  N  N  U  U
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]     1.0  33.0  31.0  15.0  26.0  75.0   0.0  43.0  U  N  N  U  U  N  U  N
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   72.0  72.0  72.0  73.0  74.0  75.0  75.0  78.0  N  N  N  N  N  F  F  F
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]  -3.0  -6.0  -7.0  -1.0   2.0  -3.0  -1.0  -3.0  N  F  F  N  N  N  N  N


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h       41.8%       31.0%       36.4%
 25kt / 24h       47.1%       56.9%       52.0%
 30kt / 24h       43.2%       56.7%       49.9%
 35kt / 24h       43.2%       56.7%       49.9%
 40kt / 24h       19.2%       53.2%       36.2%
 45kt / 36h       46.4%       30.4%       38.4%
 55kt / 36h        0.0%       16.0%        8.0%
 55kt / 48h       22.4%       18.0%       20.2%
 70kt / 48h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 65kt / 72h        3.4%        7.0%        5.2%
 Convective Decapatation Guidance

 For SSTs greater than 27.5C

 Current sst along the future track = 29.92

 WP102023 230902 06UTC
 Storm Located at           :     22.40    125.40
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    85.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    85.00             N
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]     5.00             N
 CORE SIZE        [km]     2.20             F
 TC SIZE          [%]    112.00             N


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        17.1  15.5  19.3  23.2  22.1  18.3  13.3  15.0  N  U  N  N  N  N  U  U
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   72.0  72.0  72.0  73.0  74.0  75.0  75.0  78.0  N  N  N  N  N  U  U  U
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]  -3.0  -6.0  -7.0  -1.0   2.0  -3.0  -1.0  -3.0  N  U  U  N  N  N  N  N


    Probabilities[%] of Storm Decapitation
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 -30kt / 24h        0.0%        0.2%        0.1%