Rapid Intensification Guidance

 WP102023 230902 12UTC
 Storm Located at           :     22.70    124.40
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    80.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    80.00             N
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]    -5.00             U
 CORE SIZE        [km]     3.40             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     68.00             N
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]     55.00             N
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      9.90             F
 TC SIZE          [%]    112.00             N


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        14.4  14.6  16.3  21.1  20.6  20.9  19.3  15.8  F  F  F  N  N  N  N  F
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]   97.0  83.0  52.0  78.0  30.0  23.0  17.0  15.0  F  N  N  N  U  U  U  U
 Potential [kt]         85.0  85.0  85.0  85.0  85.0  85.0  79.6  85.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]    24.0  14.0  35.0  64.0  84.0   4.0  15.0  24.0  U  U  N  N  N  U  U  U
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   66.0  66.0  68.0  66.0  68.0  68.0  68.0  70.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]  -8.0  -6.0  -2.0   3.0   1.0   4.0  -1.0   0.0  F  F  N  N  N  N  N  N


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h       15.0%       15.4%       15.2%
 25kt / 24h       30.0%       41.1%       35.6%
 30kt / 24h       24.1%       35.8%       30.0%
 35kt / 24h       20.5%       35.8%       28.1%
 40kt / 24h        9.0%       34.9%       22.0%
 45kt / 36h       32.0%       13.3%       22.6%
 55kt / 36h        0.0%        4.8%        2.4%
 55kt / 48h       16.0%       12.7%       14.3%
 70kt / 48h        3.3%        2.0%        2.6%
 65kt / 72h        5.7%        3.5%        4.6%
 Convective Decapatation Guidance

 For SSTs greater than 27.5C

 Current sst along the future track = 29.88

 WP102023 230902 12UTC
 Storm Located at           :     22.70    124.40
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    80.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    80.00             N
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]    -5.00             F
 CORE SIZE        [km]     3.40             F
 TC SIZE          [%]    112.00             N


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        14.4  14.6  16.3  21.1  20.6  20.9  19.3  15.8  U  U  U  N  N  N  N  U
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   66.0  66.0  68.0  66.0  68.0  68.0  68.0  70.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]  -8.0  -6.0  -2.0   3.0   1.0   4.0  -1.0   0.0  U  U  N  N  N  N  N  N


    Probabilities[%] of Storm Decapitation
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 -30kt / 24h        0.0%        0.2%        0.1%