Rapid Intensification Guidance

 WP102023 230902 18UTC
 Storm Located at           :     22.50    123.20
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    90.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    90.00             U
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]     5.00             N
 CORE SIZE        [km]     5.00             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     99.00             F
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]     97.00             F
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]     10.00             F
 TC SIZE          [%]    114.00             N


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        12.9  12.7  17.9  18.3  20.4  15.1  19.3  10.1  F  F  F  F  N  F  N  F
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]   74.0  15.0  79.0  35.0  28.0  24.0  29.0  42.0  N  U  N  U  U  U  U  N
 Potential [kt]         75.0  75.0  75.0  75.0  75.0  75.0  75.0  75.0  U  U  U  U  U  U  U  U
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]    21.0  27.0  50.0  47.0  63.0  31.0  30.0   6.0  U  U  N  N  N  N  N  U
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   66.0  67.0  68.0  69.0  72.0  74.0  77.0  78.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  F  F
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]  -5.0  -2.0   6.0   3.0   1.0   2.0  -2.0   0.0  F  N  N  N  N  N  N  N


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h       44.8%       33.7%       39.3%
 25kt / 24h       49.3%       60.4%       54.9%
 30kt / 24h       42.5%       60.4%       51.5%
 35kt / 24h       42.5%       60.4%       51.5%
 40kt / 24h       23.1%       56.8%       39.9%
 45kt / 36h       58.8%       35.1%       47.0%
 55kt / 36h        0.0%       20.6%       10.3%
 55kt / 48h       24.0%       17.8%       20.9%
 70kt / 48h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 65kt / 72h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 Convective Decapatation Guidance

 For SSTs greater than 27.5C

 Current sst along the future track = 29.86

 WP102023 230902 18UTC
 Storm Located at           :     22.50    123.20
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    90.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    90.00             N
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]     5.00             N
 CORE SIZE        [km]     5.00             F
 TC SIZE          [%]    114.00             N


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        12.9  12.7  17.9  18.3  20.4  15.1  19.3  10.1  U  U  N  N  N  U  N  U
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   66.0  67.0  68.0  69.0  72.0  74.0  77.0  78.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  U  U
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]  -5.0  -2.0   6.0   3.0   1.0   2.0  -2.0   0.0  U  N  N  N  N  N  N  N


    Probabilities[%] of Storm Decapitation
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 -30kt / 24h        0.0%        0.3%        0.1%