Rapid Intensification Guidance

 WP102023 230903 06UTC
 Storm Located at           :     22.90    121.50
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:   105.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]   105.00             U
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]    15.00             F
 CORE SIZE        [km]     9.00             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     77.00             N
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]     55.00             N
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]     10.00             F
 TC SIZE          [%]    118.00             N


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        17.6  20.0  20.0  22.7  16.4  11.0  11.5   8.7  F  N  N  N  F  F  F  F
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]   70.0  26.0  27.0  21.0  15.0   3.0   0.0   0.0  N  U  U  U  U  U  U  U
 Potential [kt]         60.0  60.0  60.0  54.6  35.5  29.8  29.8  28.0  U  U  U  U  U VU VU VU
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]    70.0  52.0  66.0  38.0  22.0  21.0  11.0  34.0  N  N  N  N  U  U  U  N
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   64.0  66.0  67.0  68.0  68.0  70.0  69.0  71.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]   6.0   5.0   3.0   2.0   4.0   0.0   1.0   0.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h       55.3%       23.0%       39.2%
 25kt / 24h       37.3%       34.2%       35.8%
 30kt / 24h       33.1%       29.0%       31.0%
 35kt / 24h       33.1%       29.0%       31.0%
 40kt / 24h       17.2%       27.6%       22.4%
 45kt / 36h       60.3%       18.7%       39.5%
 55kt / 36h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 55kt / 48h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 70kt / 48h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 65kt / 72h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 Convective Decapatation Guidance

 For SSTs greater than 27.5C

 Current sst along the future track = 28.94

 WP102023 230903 06UTC
 Storm Located at           :     22.90    121.50
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:   105.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]   105.00             N
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]    15.00             U
 CORE SIZE        [km]     9.00             F
 TC SIZE          [%]    118.00             N


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        17.6  20.0  20.0  22.7  16.4  11.0  11.5   8.7  N  N  N  N  U  U  U  U
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   64.0  66.0  67.0  68.0  68.0  70.0  69.0  71.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]   6.0   5.0   3.0   2.0   4.0   0.0   1.0   0.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N


    Probabilities[%] of Storm Decapitation
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 -30kt / 24h        0.0%        1.0%        0.5%