Rapid Intensification Guidance

 WP102023 230903 18UTC
 Storm Located at           :     22.70    120.00
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    75.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    75.00             N
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]   -30.00             U
 CORE SIZE        [km]     2.20             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     33.00             U
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]     19.00             U
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      9.50             F
 TC SIZE          [%]    104.00             N


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        21.3  21.1  20.2  15.2  22.0  12.8  14.2  10.8  N  N  N  F  N  F  F  F
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]   29.0  26.0  21.0  20.0   8.0  27.0  24.0   3.0  U  U  U  U  U  U  U  U
 Potential [kt]         90.0  90.0  82.3  75.7  69.4  77.9  80.1  87.0  N  N  N  U  U  N  N  N
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]    59.0  23.0  42.0   8.0  12.0  15.0  38.0  33.0  N  U  N  U  U  U  N  N
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   67.0  67.0  65.0  68.0  70.0  73.0  74.0  76.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  F
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]   2.0   0.0   4.0   2.0  -2.0   2.0   0.0   1.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h        0.0%        0.4%        0.2%
 25kt / 24h        0.5%        2.2%        1.3%
 30kt / 24h        0.2%        1.2%        0.7%
 35kt / 24h        0.0%        1.1%        0.6%
 40kt / 24h        0.0%        1.1%        0.5%
 45kt / 36h        0.2%        0.2%        0.2%
 55kt / 36h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 55kt / 48h        0.1%        0.6%        0.4%
 70kt / 48h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 65kt / 72h        0.4%        0.2%        0.3%
 Convective Decapatation Guidance

 For SSTs greater than 27.5C

 Current sst along the future track = 28.54

 WP102023 230903 18UTC
 Storm Located at           :     22.70    120.00
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    75.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    75.00             N
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]   -30.00             F
 CORE SIZE        [km]     2.20             F
 TC SIZE          [%]    104.00             N


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        21.3  21.1  20.2  15.2  22.0  12.8  14.2  10.8  N  N  N  U  N  U  U  U
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   67.0  67.0  65.0  68.0  70.0  73.0  74.0  76.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  U
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]   2.0   0.0   4.0   2.0  -2.0   2.0   0.0   1.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N


    Probabilities[%] of Storm Decapitation
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 -30kt / 24h        0.0%        0.6%        0.3%