Rapid Intensification Guidance

 WP102023 230904 00UTC
 Storm Located at           :     23.20    119.80
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    75.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    75.00             N
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]    -5.00             U
 CORE SIZE        [km]    11.40             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     46.00             N
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]     29.00             U
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      9.30             F
 TC SIZE          [%]    115.00             N


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        21.9  17.3  12.5  15.8  18.2  11.2  11.9   9.3  N  F  F  F  F  F  F  F
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]   25.0  21.0  22.0  20.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0  U  U  U  U  U  U  U  U
 Potential [kt]         90.0  84.6  71.5  61.6  49.3  40.0  37.2  37.2  N  N  U  U  U  U  U  U
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]    36.0  38.0  10.0  -2.0  14.0  13.0  31.0  38.0  N  N  U  U  U  U  N  N
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   66.0  64.0  65.0  70.0  69.0  73.0  71.0  74.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]   0.0   4.0   1.0   0.0   1.0   1.0   0.0   0.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h        7.9%        5.1%        6.5%
 25kt / 24h        8.1%       15.0%       11.6%
 30kt / 24h        7.8%       10.9%        9.3%
 35kt / 24h        7.1%       10.9%        9.0%
 40kt / 24h        2.3%       10.9%        6.6%
 45kt / 36h        3.5%        2.9%        3.2%
 55kt / 36h        0.0%        0.8%        0.4%
 55kt / 48h        0.7%        1.2%        1.0%
 70kt / 48h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 65kt / 72h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 Convective Decapatation Guidance

 For SSTs greater than 27.5C

 Current sst along the future track = 28.12

 WP102023 230904 00UTC
 Storm Located at           :     23.20    119.80
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    75.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    75.00             N
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]    -5.00             F
 CORE SIZE        [km]    11.40             F
 TC SIZE          [%]    115.00             N


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        21.9  17.3  12.5  15.8  18.2  11.2  11.9   9.3  N  N  U  U  N  U  U  U
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   66.0  64.0  65.0  70.0  69.0  73.0  71.0  74.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]   0.0   4.0   1.0   0.0   1.0   1.0   0.0   0.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N


    Probabilities[%] of Storm Decapitation
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 -30kt / 24h        0.0%        0.2%        0.1%