Rapid Intensification Guidance WP102023 230904 06UTC Storm Located at : 23.20 119.30 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]: 60. Initial Conditions: Predictor Value Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt] 60.00 N 12-H DELTA VMAX [kt] -10.00 U CORE SIZE [km] 2.20 F CONVECTION <-50C [%] 31.00 U CONVECTION <-60C [%] 10.00 U IR CORE SYMMETRY [K] 9.50 F TC SIZE [%] 114.00 N Forecast Conditions: Predictor Value Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 Wind Shear [kt] 17.9 12.6 12.6 13.0 12.5 9.0 15.5 9.6 F F F F F F F F Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2] 22.0 25.0 24.0 4.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 U U U U U U U U Potential [kt] 102.0 92.9 84.4 74.8 46.7 40.5 41.7 49.4 N N N U U U U U 200mb Divg [10^6/s] 14.0 0.0 15.0 34.0 8.0 23.0 10.0 45.0 U U U N U U U N Humidity 700-500 hPa 66.0 66.0 71.0 72.0 68.0 75.0 74.0 76.0 N N N N N F N F T Advectio [10^6 K/s] 4.0 4.0 1.0 0.0 6.0 0.0 2.0 -1.0 N N N N N N N N Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification Thresholds LDA-Method LRE-Method CONSENSUS 20kt / 12h 1.1% 1.9% 1.5% 25kt / 24h 1.4% 7.4% 4.4% 30kt / 24h 1.2% 4.2% 2.7% 35kt / 24h 1.0% 3.9% 2.5% 40kt / 24h 0.2% 3.9% 2.0% 45kt / 36h 0.8% 2.3% 1.6% 55kt / 36h 0.0% 0.7% 0.3% 55kt / 48h 0.6% 0.7% 0.7% 70kt / 48h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 65kt / 72h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Convective Decapatation Guidance For SSTs greater than 27.5C Current sst along the future track = 27.90 WP102023 230904 06UTC Storm Located at : 23.20 119.30 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]: 60. Initial Conditions: Predictor Value Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt] 60.00 U 12-H DELTA VMAX [kt] -10.00 F CORE SIZE [km] 2.20 F TC SIZE [%] 114.00 N Forecast Conditions: Predictor Value Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 Wind Shear [kt] 17.9 12.6 12.6 13.0 12.5 9.0 15.5 9.6 N U U U U U U U Humidity 700-500 hPa 66.0 66.0 71.0 72.0 68.0 75.0 74.0 76.0 N N N N N U N U T Advectio [10^6 K/s] 4.0 4.0 1.0 0.0 6.0 0.0 2.0 -1.0 N N N N N N N N Probabilities[%] of Storm Decapitation Thresholds LDA-Method LRE-Method CONSENSUS -30kt / 24h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%