Rapid Intensification Guidance

 WP102023 230904 12UTC
 Storm Located at           :     23.60    118.50
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    50.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    50.00             N
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]   -15.00             U
 CORE SIZE        [km]    11.00             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     48.00             N
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]     30.00             N
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      9.90             F
 TC SIZE          [%]    125.00             N


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        14.4  13.8  19.1  15.9  13.9  10.8  12.8  12.8  F  F  N  F  F  F  F  F
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]   17.0   9.0   8.0   6.0   4.0   0.0   0.0   0.0  U  U  U  U  U  U  U  U
 Potential [kt]         84.8  77.7  81.2  83.0  83.0  71.1  63.6  63.6  N  N  N  N  N  U  U  U
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]     8.0  12.0   9.0  17.0  -4.0  32.0  20.0  20.0  U  U  U  U  U  N  U  U
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   65.0  68.0  68.0  65.0  65.0  64.0  63.0  63.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]   2.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   1.0   0.0   0.0   0.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h        0.0%        0.4%        0.2%
 25kt / 24h        0.3%        1.7%        1.0%
 30kt / 24h        0.3%        0.8%        0.5%
 35kt / 24h        0.0%        0.6%        0.3%
 40kt / 24h        0.0%        0.6%        0.3%
 45kt / 36h        0.1%        1.5%        0.8%
 55kt / 36h        0.0%        0.4%        0.2%
 55kt / 48h        0.3%        0.6%        0.4%
 70kt / 48h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 65kt / 72h        0.1%        0.7%        0.4%
Decapatation Guidance NOT VALID
Thermodyanmic Conditions Unfavorable for Intense Typhoons
 Convective Decapatation Guidance

 For SSTs greater than 27.5C

 Current sst along the future track = 27.00

 WP102023 230904 12UTC
 Storm Located at           :     23.60    118.50
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    50.