Rapid Intensification Guidance

 WP102023 230904 18UTC
 Storm Located at           :     23.70    117.30
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    30.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    30.00             F
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]   -30.00             U
 CORE SIZE        [km]     2.20             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]      5.00            VU
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]      3.00             U
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      7.70             F
 TC SIZE          [%]    117.00             N


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        12.7  14.7  13.3  12.1  13.5  21.0  12.8  19.9  F  F  F  F  F  N  F  N
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]    0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0  U  U  U  U  U  U  U  U
 Potential [kt]         89.6  75.4  65.9  59.7  56.8  56.8  60.7  64.8  N  U  U  U  U  U  U  U
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]    18.0   6.0  20.0   6.0  14.0  20.0 -12.0  -1.0  U  U  U  U  U  U  U  U
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   69.0  67.0  66.0  61.0  61.0  59.0  61.0  70.0  N  N  N  N  N  U  N  N
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]   1.0   0.0   2.0   4.0   2.0   7.0   2.0   1.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 25kt / 24h        0.2%        0.0%        0.1%
 30kt / 24h        0.2%        0.0%        0.1%
 35kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 40kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 45kt / 36h        0.0%        0.1%        0.0%
 55kt / 36h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 55kt / 48h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 70kt / 48h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 65kt / 72h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
Decapatation Guidance NOT VALID
Thermodyanmic Conditions Unfavorable for Intense Typhoons
 Convective Decapatation Guidance

 For SSTs greater than 27.5C

 Current sst along the future track = 25.20

 WP102023 230904 18UTC
 Storm Located at           :     23.70    117.30
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    30.