Rapid Intensification Guidance

 WP102023 230905 00UTC
 Storm Located at           :     23.70    116.70
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    25.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    25.00             F
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]   -25.00             U
 CORE SIZE        [km]     2.20             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]      1.00            VU
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]      0.00             U
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      4.60             F
 TC SIZE          [%]    104.00             N


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        16.6  13.3  10.2  13.2   9.7  14.2  14.2  14.2  F  F  F  F  F  F  F  F
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]    5.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0  U  U  U  U  U  U  U  U
 Potential [kt]        101.0  99.3  96.1  94.6  90.0  84.4  84.4  84.4  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]    29.0  13.0 -10.0 -12.0  41.0  25.0  25.0  25.0  N  U  U  U  N  U  U  U
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   70.0  68.0  67.0  68.0  67.0  67.0  67.0  67.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]   0.0   2.0   2.0   2.0   0.0   3.0   3.0   3.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 25kt / 24h        0.2%        0.2%        0.2%
 30kt / 24h        0.2%        0.0%        0.1%
 35kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 40kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 45kt / 36h        0.0%        0.4%        0.2%
 55kt / 36h        0.0%        0.1%        0.0%
 55kt / 48h        0.2%        0.2%        0.2%
 70kt / 48h        0.2%        0.1%        0.1%
 65kt / 72h        0.3%        0.4%        0.3%
Decapatation Guidance NOT VALID
Thermodyanmic Conditions Unfavorable for Intense Typhoons
 Convective Decapatation Guidance

 For SSTs greater than 27.5C

 Current sst along the future track = 26.36

 WP102023 230905 00UTC
 Storm Located at           :     23.70    116.70
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    25.