Rapid Intensification Guidance WP112023 230830 00UTC Storm Located at : 11.90 154.70 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]: 25. Initial Conditions: Predictor Value Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt] 25.00 F 12-H DELTA VMAX [kt] 5.00 N CORE SIZE [km] 2.20 F CONVECTION <-50C [%] 72.00 N CONVECTION <-60C [%] 32.00 N IR CORE SYMMETRY [K] 9.90 F TC SIZE [%] 135.00 U Forecast Conditions: Predictor Value Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 Wind Shear [kt] 17.4 17.2 15.3 20.2 25.0 23.8 15.6 15.6 F F F N N N F F Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2] 126.0 116.0 88.0 73.0 87.0 54.0 42.0 14.0 F F F N N N N U Potential [kt] 140.0 140.0 140.0 140.0 140.0 140.0 140.0 137.0 F F F F F F F F 200mb Divg [10^6/s] 146.0 122.0 141.0 185.0 140.0 128.0 51.0 38.0 VF F VF VF VF F N N Humidity 700-500 hPa 83.0 79.0 78.0 75.0 67.0 69.0 64.0 62.0 F F F F N N N N T Advectio [10^6 K/s] -1.0 0.0 1.0 5.0 19.0 26.0 27.0 4.0 N N N N VU VU VU N Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification Thresholds LDA-Method LRE-Method CONSENSUS 20kt / 12h 3.4% 10.0% 6.7% 25kt / 24h 59.0% 72.3% 65.7% 30kt / 24h 23.0% 51.4% 37.2% 35kt / 24h 9.8% 48.9% 29.4% 40kt / 24h 3.1% 47.6% 25.4% 45kt / 36h 41.9% 81.5% 61.7% 55kt / 36h 0.0% 63.7% 31.9% 55kt / 48h 51.8% 66.2% 59.0% 70kt / 48h 48.1% 61.3% 54.7% 65kt / 72h 61.9% 77.6% 69.7% Convective Decapatation Guidance For SSTs greater than 27.5C Current sst along the future track = 29.84 WP112023 230830 00UTC Storm Located at : 11.90 154.70 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]: 25. Initial Conditions: Predictor Value Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt] 25.00 U 12-H DELTA VMAX [kt] 5.00 N CORE SIZE [km] 2.20 F TC SIZE [%] 135.00 F Forecast Conditions: Predictor Value Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 Wind Shear [kt] 17.4 17.2 15.3 20.2 25.0 23.8 15.6 15.6 N N U N N N U U Humidity 700-500 hPa 83.0 79.0 78.0 75.0 67.0 69.0 64.0 62.0 U U U U N N N N T Advectio [10^6 K/s] -1.0 0.0 1.0 5.0 19.0 26.0 27.0 4.0 N N N N VF VF VF N Probabilities[%] of Storm Decapitation Thresholds LDA-Method LRE-Method CONSENSUS -30kt / 24h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%