Rapid Intensification Guidance WP112023 230830 06UTC Storm Located at : 12.80 154.30 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]: 35. Initial Conditions: Predictor Value Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt] 35.00 F 12-H DELTA VMAX [kt] 15.00 F CORE SIZE [km] 2.20 F CONVECTION <-50C [%] 45.00 N CONVECTION <-60C [%] 6.00 U IR CORE SYMMETRY [K] 10.00 F TC SIZE [%] 118.00 N Forecast Conditions: Predictor Value Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 Wind Shear [kt] 16.8 25.4 32.7 38.5 50.1 43.2 33.0 29.2 F N U U VU VU U N Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2] 118.0 116.0 115.0 112.0 81.0 55.0 41.0 34.0 F F F F N N N U Potential [kt] 130.0 130.0 130.0 130.0 130.0 130.0 130.0 130.0 F F F F F F F F 200mb Divg [10^6/s] 169.0 163.0 116.0 137.0 55.0 58.0 33.0 56.0 VF VF F VF N N N N Humidity 700-500 hPa 78.0 72.0 69.0 63.0 60.0 57.0 53.0 48.0 F N N N N U U U T Advectio [10^6 K/s] 7.0 7.0 19.0 18.0 33.0 35.0 13.0 14.0 N N VU VU VU VU U U Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification Thresholds LDA-Method LRE-Method CONSENSUS 20kt / 12h 12.5% 15.0% 13.7% 25kt / 24h 60.6% 61.2% 60.9% 30kt / 24h 31.5% 36.0% 33.7% 35kt / 24h 13.1% 34.8% 23.9% 40kt / 24h 9.5% 34.8% 22.1% 45kt / 36h 25.5% 43.0% 34.2% 55kt / 36h 0.0% 17.2% 8.6% 55kt / 48h 24.7% 14.1% 19.4% 70kt / 48h 24.7% 7.1% 15.9% 65kt / 72h 51.7% 14.1% 32.9% Convective Decapatation Guidance For SSTs greater than 27.5C Current sst along the future track = 29.58 WP112023 230830 06UTC Storm Located at : 12.80 154.30 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]: 35. Initial Conditions: Predictor Value Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt] 35.00 U 12-H DELTA VMAX [kt] 15.00 U CORE SIZE [km] 2.20 F TC SIZE [%] 118.00 N Forecast Conditions: Predictor Value Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 Wind Shear [kt] 16.8 25.4 32.7 38.5 50.1 43.2 33.0 29.2 N N F F VF VF F N Humidity 700-500 hPa 78.0 72.0 69.0 63.0 60.0 57.0 53.0 48.0 U N N N N F F F T Advectio [10^6 K/s] 7.0 7.0 19.0 18.0 33.0 35.0 13.0 14.0 N N VF VF VF VF F F Probabilities[%] of Storm Decapitation Thresholds LDA-Method LRE-Method CONSENSUS -30kt / 24h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%