Rapid Intensification Guidance WP112023 230830 12UTC Storm Located at : 13.30 154.30 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]: 40. Initial Conditions: Predictor Value Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt] 40.00 F 12-H DELTA VMAX [kt] 5.00 N CORE SIZE [km] 2.20 F CONVECTION <-50C [%] 43.00 U CONVECTION <-60C [%] 30.00 N IR CORE SYMMETRY [K] 7.50 F TC SIZE [%] 84.00 F Forecast Conditions: Predictor Value Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 Wind Shear [kt] 17.3 18.2 21.6 31.0 34.7 22.0 23.0 17.3 F F N U U N N F Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2] 88.0 76.0 73.0 68.0 59.0 20.0 11.0 16.0 F N N N N U U U Potential [kt] 125.0 125.0 125.0 125.0 125.0 124.3 124.3 125.0 N N N N N N N N 200mb Divg [10^6/s] 151.0 163.0 165.0 158.0 136.0 42.0 24.0 41.0 VF VF VF VF VF N U N Humidity 700-500 hPa 73.0 71.0 70.0 67.0 65.0 58.0 51.0 47.0 N N N N N U U VU T Advectio [10^6 K/s] 5.0 9.0 18.0 28.0 34.0 30.0 3.0 -4.0 N U VU VU VU VU N F Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification Thresholds LDA-Method LRE-Method CONSENSUS 20kt / 12h 8.5% 10.0% 9.2% 25kt / 24h 49.6% 55.3% 52.5% 30kt / 24h 21.7% 31.9% 26.8% 35kt / 24h 17.3% 31.7% 24.5% 40kt / 24h 17.3% 31.7% 24.5% 45kt / 36h 33.8% 44.4% 39.1% 55kt / 36h 0.0% 18.0% 9.0% 55kt / 48h 40.0% 28.7% 34.4% 70kt / 48h 24.8% 11.4% 18.1% 65kt / 72h 56.3% 22.9% 39.6% Convective Decapatation Guidance For SSTs greater than 27.5C Current sst along the future track = 29.64 WP112023 230830 12UTC Storm Located at : 13.30 154.30 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]: 40. Initial Conditions: Predictor Value Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt] 40.00 U 12-H DELTA VMAX [kt] 5.00 N CORE SIZE [km] 2.20 F TC SIZE [%] 84.00 N Forecast Conditions: Predictor Value Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 Wind Shear [kt] 17.3 18.2 21.6 31.0 34.7 22.0 23.0 17.3 N N N N F N N N Humidity 700-500 hPa 73.0 71.0 70.0 67.0 65.0 58.0 51.0 47.0 N N N N N F F VF T Advectio [10^6 K/s] 5.0 9.0 18.0 28.0 34.0 30.0 3.0 -4.0 N F VF VF VF VF N U Probabilities[%] of Storm Decapitation Thresholds LDA-Method LRE-Method CONSENSUS -30kt / 24h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%