Rapid Intensification Guidance

 WP112023 230830 18UTC
 Storm Located at           :     14.10    154.50
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    45.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    45.00             N
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]    10.00             F
 CORE SIZE        [km]     2.20             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     63.00             N
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]     54.00             N
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      9.10             F
 TC SIZE          [%]     75.00             F


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        30.7  39.1  41.6  44.3  35.6  28.3  30.3  27.1  U  U VU VU  U  N  N  N
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]   75.0  81.0  67.0  58.0  68.0  13.0  14.0  21.0  N  N  N  N  N  U  U  U
 Potential [kt]        120.0 120.0 120.0 120.0 120.0 119.3 120.0 120.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]   128.0 114.0  76.0  56.0  51.0  33.0 -22.0  -7.0  F  F  N  N  N  N VU  U
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   69.0  66.0  65.0  64.0  64.0  61.0  54.0  51.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  U  U
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]  21.0  19.0  29.0  26.0  21.0  24.0  11.0  10.0 VU VU VU VU VU VU  U  U


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h       10.4%        6.3%        8.3%
 25kt / 24h       24.2%       27.6%       25.9%
 30kt / 24h       11.0%       11.9%       11.5%
 35kt / 24h        9.6%       11.8%       10.7%
 40kt / 24h        9.6%       11.6%       10.6%
 45kt / 36h        9.9%       18.6%       14.2%
 55kt / 36h        0.0%        5.4%        2.7%
 55kt / 48h        6.9%        7.9%        7.4%
 70kt / 48h        2.5%        2.3%        2.4%
 65kt / 72h        6.8%        4.5%        5.7%
 Convective Decapatation Guidance

 For SSTs greater than 27.5C

 Current sst along the future track = 29.16

 WP112023 230830 18UTC
 Storm Located at           :     14.10    154.50
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    45.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    45.00             U
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]    10.00             U
 CORE SIZE        [km]     2.20             F
 TC SIZE          [%]     75.00             U


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        30.7  39.1  41.6  44.3  35.6  28.3  30.3  27.1  N  F VF VF  F  N  N  N
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   69.0  66.0  65.0  64.0  64.0  61.0  54.0  51.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  F  F
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]  21.0  19.0  29.0  26.0  21.0  24.0  11.0  10.0 VF VF VF VF VF VF  F  F


    Probabilities[%] of Storm Decapitation
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 -30kt / 24h        9.2%        0.1%        4.7%