Rapid Intensification Guidance

 WP112023 230831 00UTC
 Storm Located at           :     15.30    154.50
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    55.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    55.00             N
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]    15.00             F
 CORE SIZE        [km]     2.20             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     79.00             N
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]     63.00             N
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      9.30             F
 TC SIZE          [%]     97.00             N


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        39.3  44.9  44.6  43.2  30.5  38.9  37.6  17.9  U VU VU VU  N  U  U  F
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]   84.0  65.0  54.0  52.0  26.0  18.0  10.0  27.0  N  N  N  N  U  U  U  U
 Potential [kt]        110.0 110.0 110.0 110.0 110.0 107.0 109.3 110.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]   135.0  83.0  54.0  34.0  22.0  14.0  40.0  41.0 VF  N  N  N  U  U  N  N
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   69.0  65.0  65.0  62.0  61.0  57.0  55.0  52.0  N  N  N  N  N  U  U  U
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]  19.0  30.0  27.0  31.0  16.0  22.0  12.0  -5.0 VU VU VU VU  U VU  U  F


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h       19.7%        8.6%       14.2%
 25kt / 24h       29.6%       29.8%       29.7%
 30kt / 24h       16.3%       16.0%       16.1%
 35kt / 24h       11.1%       16.0%       13.5%
 40kt / 24h       10.6%       15.0%       12.8%
 45kt / 36h       10.6%       18.7%       14.7%
 55kt / 36h        0.0%        5.9%        3.0%
 55kt / 48h        1.7%        4.8%        3.3%
 70kt / 48h        0.1%        1.2%        0.7%
 65kt / 72h        1.0%        2.2%        1.6%
 Convective Decapatation Guidance

 For SSTs greater than 27.5C

 Current sst along the future track = 29.10

 WP112023 230831 00UTC
 Storm Located at           :     15.30    154.50
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    55.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    55.00             U
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]    15.00             U
 CORE SIZE        [km]     2.20             F
 TC SIZE          [%]     97.00             N


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        39.3  44.9  44.6  43.2  30.5  38.9  37.6  17.9  F VF VF VF  N  F  F  N
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   69.0  65.0  65.0  62.0  61.0  57.0  55.0  52.0  N  N  N  N  N  F  F  F
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]  19.0  30.0  27.0  31.0  16.0  22.0  12.0  -5.0 VF VF VF VF  F VF  F  U


    Probabilities[%] of Storm Decapitation
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 -30kt / 24h       42.0%        0.6%       21.3%