Rapid Intensification Guidance WP112023 230831 06UTC Storm Located at : 17.00 154.30 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]: 60. Initial Conditions: Predictor Value Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt] 60.00 N 12-H DELTA VMAX [kt] 15.00 F CORE SIZE [km] 2.20 F CONVECTION <-50C [%] 77.00 N CONVECTION <-60C [%] 44.00 N IR CORE SYMMETRY [K] 9.90 F TC SIZE [%] 108.00 N Forecast Conditions: Predictor Value Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 Wind Shear [kt] 43.5 43.5 43.7 38.3 32.8 39.3 33.8 27.7 VU VU VU U U U U N Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2] 71.0 53.0 53.0 62.0 15.0 13.0 17.0 32.0 N N N N U U U U Potential [kt] 105.0 105.0 105.0 105.0 102.0 99.6 105.0 105.0 N N N N N N N N 200mb Divg [10^6/s] 83.0 53.0 35.0 61.0 11.0 8.0 49.0 71.0 N N N N U U N N Humidity 700-500 hPa 65.0 65.0 69.0 65.0 63.0 61.0 56.0 50.0 N N N N N N U U T Advectio [10^6 K/s] 26.0 31.0 33.0 18.0 16.0 17.0 3.0 6.0 VU VU VU VU U U N N Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification Thresholds LDA-Method LRE-Method CONSENSUS 20kt / 12h 18.6% 7.1% 12.9% 25kt / 24h 28.5% 27.2% 27.9% 30kt / 24h 17.2% 15.2% 16.2% 35kt / 24h 14.9% 15.2% 15.0% 40kt / 24h 8.1% 14.3% 11.2% 45kt / 36h 8.7% 14.8% 11.7% 55kt / 36h 0.0% 4.6% 2.3% 55kt / 48h 0.4% 3.9% 2.1% 70kt / 48h 0.1% 0.8% 0.5% 65kt / 72h 0.2% 1.4% 0.8% Convective Decapatation Guidance For SSTs greater than 27.5C Current sst along the future track = 29.04 WP112023 230831 06UTC Storm Located at : 17.00 154.30 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]: 60. Initial Conditions: Predictor Value Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt] 60.00 U 12-H DELTA VMAX [kt] 15.00 U CORE SIZE [km] 2.20 F TC SIZE [%] 108.00 N Forecast Conditions: Predictor Value Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 Wind Shear [kt] 43.5 43.5 43.7 38.3 32.8 39.3 33.8 27.7 VF VF VF F F F F N Humidity 700-500 hPa 65.0 65.0 69.0 65.0 63.0 61.0 56.0 50.0 N N N N N N F F T Advectio [10^6 K/s] 26.0 31.0 33.0 18.0 16.0 17.0 3.0 6.0 VF VF VF VF F F N N Probabilities[%] of Storm Decapitation Thresholds LDA-Method LRE-Method CONSENSUS -30kt / 24h 45.9% 1.0% 23.4%