Rapid Intensification Guidance

 WP112023 230831 18UTC
 Storm Located at           :     19.20    152.60
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    55.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    55.00             N
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]    -5.00             U
 CORE SIZE        [km]     2.20             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     51.00             N
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]     47.00             N
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      7.20             F
 TC SIZE          [%]     92.00             N


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        44.7  34.8  37.6  34.7  41.1  43.9  33.8  19.0 VU  U  U  U VU VU  U  N
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]   54.0  53.0  39.0  14.0  16.0  11.0  28.0  48.0  N  N  U  U  U  U  U  N
 Potential [kt]        110.0 110.0 110.0 107.0 104.6 110.0 110.0 110.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]    17.0  50.0  33.0  21.0  23.0  25.0 -11.0 -11.0  U  N  N  U  U  U  U  U
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   67.0  65.0  65.0  65.0  63.0  59.0  54.0  50.0  N  N  N  N  N  U  U  U
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]  31.0  26.0  24.0  11.0   9.0  10.0   9.0   4.0 VU VU VU  U  U  U  U  N


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h        0.7%        0.6%        0.6%
 25kt / 24h        0.7%        3.5%        2.1%
 30kt / 24h        0.2%        1.3%        0.7%
 35kt / 24h        0.2%        1.1%        0.7%
 40kt / 24h        0.2%        1.1%        0.6%
 45kt / 36h        0.2%        1.0%        0.6%
 55kt / 36h        0.0%        0.2%        0.1%
 55kt / 48h        0.0%        0.4%        0.2%
 70kt / 48h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 65kt / 72h        0.0%        0.2%        0.1%
 Convective Decapatation Guidance

 For SSTs greater than 27.5C

 Current sst along the future track = 28.84

 WP112023 230831 18UTC
 Storm Located at           :     19.20    152.60
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    55.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    55.00             U
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]    -5.00             F
 CORE SIZE        [km]     2.20             F
 TC SIZE          [%]     92.00             N


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        44.7  34.8  37.6  34.7  41.1  43.9  33.8  19.0 VF  F  F  F VF VF  F  N
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   67.0  65.0  65.0  65.0  63.0  59.0  54.0  50.0  N  N  N  N  N  F  F  F
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]  31.0  26.0  24.0  11.0   9.0  10.0   9.0   4.0 VF VF VF  F  F  F  F  N


    Probabilities[%] of Storm Decapitation
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 -30kt / 24h       32.0%        1.1%       16.5%