Rapid Intensification Guidance WP112023 230901 00UTC Storm Located at : 20.40 151.50 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]: 50. Initial Conditions: Predictor Value Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt] 50.00 N 12-H DELTA VMAX [kt] -5.00 U CORE SIZE [km] 8.60 F CONVECTION <-50C [%] 9.00 VU CONVECTION <-60C [%] 1.00 U IR CORE SYMMETRY [K] 5.20 F TC SIZE [%] 102.00 N Forecast Conditions: Predictor Value Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 Wind Shear [kt] 35.5 34.2 34.3 34.8 35.2 35.6 33.7 28.6 U U U U U U U N Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2] 63.0 37.0 15.0 18.0 19.0 32.0 8.0 20.0 N U U U U U U U Potential [kt] 115.0 115.0 112.0 114.3 115.0 115.0 115.0 115.0 N N N N N N N N 200mb Divg [10^6/s] 50.0 42.0 41.0 57.0 41.0 34.0 -1.0 15.0 N N N N N N U U Humidity 700-500 hPa 63.0 63.0 64.0 63.0 59.0 53.0 49.0 44.0 N N N N U U U VU T Advectio [10^6 K/s] 27.0 18.0 10.0 9.0 10.0 12.0 33.0 36.0 VU VU U U U U VU VU Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification Thresholds LDA-Method LRE-Method CONSENSUS 20kt / 12h 0.2% 0.3% 0.3% 25kt / 24h 0.6% 2.0% 1.3% 30kt / 24h 0.2% 0.6% 0.4% 35kt / 24h 0.1% 0.5% 0.3% 40kt / 24h 0.0% 0.5% 0.3% 45kt / 36h 0.2% 0.7% 0.5% 55kt / 36h 0.0% 0.1% 0.0% 55kt / 48h 0.0% 0.5% 0.3% 70kt / 48h 0.0% 0.1% 0.0% 65kt / 72h 0.0% 0.2% 0.1% Convective Decapatation Guidance For SSTs greater than 27.5C Current sst along the future track = 28.64 WP112023 230901 00UTC Storm Located at : 20.40 151.50 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]: 50. Initial Conditions: Predictor Value Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt] 50.00 U 12-H DELTA VMAX [kt] -5.00 F CORE SIZE [km] 8.60 F TC SIZE [%] 102.00 N Forecast Conditions: Predictor Value Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 Wind Shear [kt] 35.5 34.2 34.3 34.8 35.2 35.6 33.7 28.6 F F F F F F F N Humidity 700-500 hPa 63.0 63.0 64.0 63.0 59.0 53.0 49.0 44.0 N N N N F F F VF T Advectio [10^6 K/s] 27.0 18.0 10.0 9.0 10.0 12.0 33.0 36.0 VF VF F F F F VF VF Probabilities[%] of Storm Decapitation Thresholds LDA-Method LRE-Method CONSENSUS -30kt / 24h 9.2% 0.5% 4.8%