Rapid Intensification Guidance

 WP112023 230901 06UTC
 Storm Located at           :     21.90    150.90
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    45.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    45.00             N
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]   -10.00             U
 CORE SIZE        [km]    11.40             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     11.00            VU
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]      8.00             U
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      4.20             F
 TC SIZE          [%]    103.00             N


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        31.1  31.4  31.4  31.4  31.4  31.4  31.4  31.4  U  U  U  U  U  U  U  U
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]   52.0  20.0  15.0  18.0  14.0  37.0  48.0  33.0  N  U  U  U  U  U  N  U
 Potential [kt]        120.0 120.0 117.0 120.0 120.0 120.0 120.0 120.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]    51.0  41.0  41.0  41.0  41.0  41.0  41.0  41.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   65.0  68.0  68.0  68.0  68.0  68.0  68.0  68.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]  21.0  11.0  11.0  11.0  11.0  11.0  11.0  11.0 VU  U  U  U  U  U  U  U


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h        0.0%        0.3%        0.2%
 25kt / 24h        0.5%        2.2%        1.4%
 30kt / 24h        0.3%        0.7%        0.5%
 35kt / 24h        0.0%        0.6%        0.3%
 40kt / 24h        0.0%        0.6%        0.3%
 45kt / 36h        0.2%        0.9%        0.6%
 55kt / 36h        0.0%        0.1%        0.1%
 55kt / 48h        0.0%        0.8%        0.4%
 70kt / 48h        0.0%        0.1%        0.0%
 65kt / 72h        1.4%        0.6%        1.0%
 Convective Decapatation Guidance

 For SSTs greater than 27.5C

 Current sst along the future track = 28.62

 WP112023 230901 06UTC
 Storm Located at           :     21.90    150.90
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    45.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    45.00             U
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]   -10.00             F
 CORE SIZE        [km]    11.40             F
 TC SIZE          [%]    103.00             N


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        31.1  31.4  31.4  31.4  31.4  31.4  31.4  31.4  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   65.0  68.0  68.0  68.0  68.0  68.0  68.0  68.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]  21.0  11.0  11.0  11.0  11.0  11.0  11.0  11.0 VF  F  F  F  F  F  F  F


    Probabilities[%] of Storm Decapitation
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 -30kt / 24h        2.6%        0.2%        1.4%