Rapid Intensification Guidance

 WP112023 230901 12UTC
 Storm Located at           :     23.20    149.70
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    40.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    40.00             F
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]   -10.00             U
 CORE SIZE        [km]    11.40             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     10.00            VU
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]      2.00             U
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      4.50             F
 TC SIZE          [%]    114.00             N


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        33.2  35.9  46.1  38.7  41.7  28.5  19.5  15.3  U  U VU  U VU  N  N  F
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]   21.0  15.0  19.0  13.0  26.0  49.0  34.0  51.0  U  U  U  U  U  N  U  N
 Potential [kt]        125.0 122.0 125.0 122.0 125.0 125.0 125.0 125.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]     0.0   9.0   9.0  73.0  54.0  22.0 -27.0  24.0  U  U  U  N  N  U VU  U
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   73.0  73.0  70.0  72.0  72.0  68.0  62.0  63.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]  23.0  28.0  14.0   4.0  13.0   8.0   4.0   0.0 VU VU  U  N  U  U  N  N


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h        0.0%        0.2%        0.1%
 25kt / 24h        0.2%        0.9%        0.6%
 30kt / 24h        0.2%        0.2%        0.2%
 35kt / 24h        0.0%        0.2%        0.1%
 40kt / 24h        0.0%        0.2%        0.1%
 45kt / 36h        0.1%        0.4%        0.3%
 55kt / 36h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 55kt / 48h        0.0%        0.4%        0.2%
 70kt / 48h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 65kt / 72h        0.8%        0.7%        0.8%
 Convective Decapatation Guidance

 For SSTs greater than 27.5C

 Current sst along the future track = 28.50

 WP112023 230901 12UTC
 Storm Located at           :     23.20    149.70
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    40.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    40.00             U
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]   -10.00             F
 CORE SIZE        [km]    11.40             F
 TC SIZE          [%]    114.00             N


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        33.2  35.9  46.1  38.7  41.7  28.5  19.5  15.3  F  F VF  F VF  N  N  U
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   73.0  73.0  70.0  72.0  72.0  68.0  62.0  63.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]  23.0  28.0  14.0   4.0  13.0   8.0   4.0   0.0 VF VF  F  N  F  F  N  N


    Probabilities[%] of Storm Decapitation
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 -30kt / 24h        7.4%        0.2%        3.8%