Rapid Intensification Guidance

 WP112023 230901 18UTC
 Storm Located at           :     24.40    148.30
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    35.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    35.00             F
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]   -10.00             U
 CORE SIZE        [km]     9.40             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     32.00             U
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]     30.00             N
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      4.00             F
 TC SIZE          [%]    132.00             U


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        33.0  29.5  25.1  30.8  32.0  33.4  17.8  17.2  U  N  N  U  U  U  F  F
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]   15.0  22.0  18.0  21.0  31.0  14.0  31.0  25.0  U  U  U  U  U  U  U  U
 Potential [kt]        127.0 130.0 130.0 130.0 130.0 130.0 130.0 130.0  N  F  F  F  F  F  F  F
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]    54.0  65.0  65.0  69.0  55.0  44.0  29.0  58.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   69.0  68.0  68.0  66.0  63.0  58.0  52.0  49.0  N  N  N  N  N  U  U  U
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]  22.0  12.0  11.0   5.0   4.0   0.0   0.0   5.0 VU  U  U  N  N  N  N  N


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h        0.0%        0.3%        0.1%
 25kt / 24h        0.6%        3.5%        2.1%
 30kt / 24h        0.3%        1.1%        0.7%
 35kt / 24h        0.0%        0.9%        0.4%
 40kt / 24h        0.0%        0.9%        0.4%
 45kt / 36h        0.3%        2.5%        1.4%
 55kt / 36h        0.0%        0.4%        0.2%
 55kt / 48h        0.3%        1.7%        1.0%
 70kt / 48h        0.1%        0.3%        0.2%
 65kt / 72h        7.6%        2.9%        5.3%
 Convective Decapatation Guidance

 For SSTs greater than 27.5C

 Current sst along the future track = 28.50

 WP112023 230901 18UTC
 Storm Located at           :     24.40    148.30
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    35.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    35.00             U
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]   -10.00             F
 CORE SIZE        [km]     9.40             F
 TC SIZE          [%]    132.00             N


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        33.0  29.5  25.1  30.8  32.0  33.4  17.8  17.2  F  N  N  N  N  F  N  N
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   69.0  68.0  68.0  66.0  63.0  58.0  52.0  49.0  N  N  N  N  N  F  F  F
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]  22.0  12.0  11.0   5.0   4.0   0.0   0.0   5.0 VF  F  F  N  N  N  N  N


    Probabilities[%] of Storm Decapitation
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 -30kt / 24h        0.1%        0.1%        0.1%