Rapid Intensification Guidance

 WP112023 230902 00UTC
 Storm Located at           :     25.40    147.80
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    35.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    35.00             F
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]    -5.00             U
 CORE SIZE        [km]    11.80             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]      0.00            VU
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]      0.00             U
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      1.30             F
 TC SIZE          [%]    126.00             N


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        35.1  37.4  39.0  39.2  37.6  30.3  12.7  15.4  U  U  U  U  U  N  F  F
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]   17.0  24.0  13.0  21.0  38.0  45.0  37.0  12.0  U  U  U  U  U  N  U  U
 Potential [kt]        129.3 130.0 129.3 130.0 130.0 130.0 130.0 130.0  F  F  F  F  F  F  F  F
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]    30.0  34.0  85.0  58.0  52.0 -39.0  -4.0   5.0  N  N  F  N  N VU  U  U
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   72.0  71.0  73.0  71.0  64.0  54.0  51.0  56.0  N  N  N  N  N  U  U  U
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]  15.0   4.0   0.0  16.0   4.0   9.0   4.0   0.0  U  N  N  U  N  U  N  N


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h        0.0%        0.2%        0.1%
 25kt / 24h        0.2%        1.3%        0.8%
 30kt / 24h        0.2%        0.3%        0.2%
 35kt / 24h        0.0%        0.3%        0.1%
 40kt / 24h        0.0%        0.3%        0.1%
 45kt / 36h        0.1%        0.8%        0.5%
 55kt / 36h        0.0%        0.1%        0.0%
 55kt / 48h        0.0%        0.5%        0.3%
 70kt / 48h        0.0%        0.1%        0.1%
 65kt / 72h        1.8%        1.4%        1.6%
 Convective Decapatation Guidance

 For SSTs greater than 27.5C

 Current sst along the future track = 28.48

 WP112023 230902 00UTC
 Storm Located at           :     25.40    147.80
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    35.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    35.00             U
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]    -5.00             F
 CORE SIZE        [km]    11.80             F
 TC SIZE          [%]    126.00             N


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        35.1  37.4  39.0  39.2  37.6  30.3  12.7  15.4  F  F  F  F  F  N  U  U
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   72.0  71.0  73.0  71.0  64.0  54.0  51.0  56.0  N  N  N  N  N  F  F  F
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]  15.0   4.0   0.0  16.0   4.0   9.0   4.0   0.0  F  N  N  F  N  F  N  N


    Probabilities[%] of Storm Decapitation
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 -30kt / 24h        0.4%        0.1%        0.2%