Rapid Intensification Guidance

 WP112023 230902 12UTC
 Storm Located at           :     28.60    144.80
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    30.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    30.00             F
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]    -5.00             U
 CORE SIZE        [km]    11.80             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     11.00            VU
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]     10.00             U
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      1.70             F
 TC SIZE          [%]    130.00             U


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        32.1  32.0  31.6  28.3  28.2  17.1  26.8  33.8  U  U  U  N  N  F  N  U
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]   19.0  25.0  32.0  36.0  12.0  18.0  18.0  16.0  U  U  U  U  U  U  U  U
 Potential [kt]        135.0 135.0 135.0 135.0 135.0 135.0 135.0 135.0  F  F  F  F  F  F  F  F
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]    77.0  46.0  18.0  30.0 -10.0   9.0  49.0   9.0  N  N  U  N  U  U  N  U
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   65.0  67.0  64.0  65.0  63.0  59.0  63.0  59.0  N  N  N  N  N  U  N  U
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]   6.0   6.0   4.0   1.0   4.0   3.0   0.0   0.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h        0.0%        0.2%        0.1%
 25kt / 24h        0.5%        2.7%        1.6%
 30kt / 24h        0.3%        0.7%        0.5%
 35kt / 24h        0.0%        0.6%        0.3%
 40kt / 24h        0.0%        0.6%        0.3%
 45kt / 36h        0.2%        2.8%        1.5%
 55kt / 36h        0.0%        0.4%        0.2%
 55kt / 48h        0.3%        1.9%        1.1%
 70kt / 48h        0.1%        0.6%        0.3%
 65kt / 72h        2.4%        2.8%        2.6%
 Convective Decapatation Guidance

 For SSTs greater than 27.5C

 Current sst along the future track = 28.64

 WP112023 230902 12UTC
 Storm Located at           :     28.60    144.80
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    30.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    30.00             U
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]    -5.00             F
 CORE SIZE        [km]    11.80             F
 TC SIZE          [%]    130.00             N


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        32.1  32.0  31.6  28.3  28.2  17.1  26.8  33.8  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  F
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   65.0  67.0  64.0  65.0  63.0  59.0  63.0  59.0  N  N  N  N  N  F  N  F
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]   6.0   6.0   4.0   1.0   4.0   3.0   0.0   0.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N


    Probabilities[%] of Storm Decapitation
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 -30kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%