Rapid Intensification Guidance

 WP112023 230902 18UTC
 Storm Located at           :     29.30    142.80
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    30.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    30.00             F
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]    -5.00             U
 CORE SIZE        [km]     2.20             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     32.00             U
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]     30.00             N
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      3.90             F
 TC SIZE          [%]    124.00             N


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        36.5  39.1  35.2  23.6  20.1  21.1  21.1  21.1  U  U  U  N  N  N  N  N
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]   31.0  31.0  54.0  29.0  36.0  23.0   0.0   0.0  U  U  N  U  U  U  U  U
 Potential [kt]        135.0 135.0 135.0 135.0 135.0 135.0 135.0 135.0  F  F  F  F  F  F  F  F
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]    56.0  39.0  27.0  32.0 -16.0  43.0  43.0  43.0  N  N  U  N  U  N  N  N
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   66.0  62.0  60.0  57.0  52.0  52.0  52.0  52.0  N  N  N  U  U  U  U  U
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]  13.0   7.0   4.0   3.0   4.0   0.0   0.0   0.0  U  N  N  N  N  N  N  N


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h        0.0%        0.2%        0.1%
 25kt / 24h        0.5%        3.4%        2.0%
 30kt / 24h        0.3%        0.9%        0.6%
 35kt / 24h        0.0%        0.7%        0.4%
 40kt / 24h        0.0%        0.7%        0.4%
 45kt / 36h        0.3%        4.0%        2.2%
 55kt / 36h        0.0%        0.7%        0.4%
 55kt / 48h        1.3%        3.4%        2.4%
 70kt / 48h        0.1%        1.1%        0.6%
 65kt / 72h        7.4%        5.5%        6.5%
 Convective Decapatation Guidance

 For SSTs greater than 27.5C

 Current sst along the future track = 28.76

 WP112023 230902 18UTC
 Storm Located at           :     29.30    142.80
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    30.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    30.00             U
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]    -5.00             F
 CORE SIZE        [km]     2.20             F
 TC SIZE          [%]    124.00             N


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        36.5  39.1  35.2  23.6  20.1  21.1  21.1  21.1  F  F  F  N  N  N  N  N
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   66.0  62.0  60.0  57.0  52.0  52.0  52.0  52.0  N  N  N  F  F  F  F  F
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]  13.0   7.0   4.0   3.0   4.0   0.0   0.0   0.0  F  N  N  N  N  N  N  N


    Probabilities[%] of Storm Decapitation
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 -30kt / 24h        0.0%        0.1%        0.0%