Rapid Intensification Guidance

 WP112023 230903 00UTC
 Storm Located at           :     29.60    141.90
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    25.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    25.00             F
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]    -5.00             U
 CORE SIZE        [km]    11.80             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     14.00             U
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]      9.00             U
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      2.20             F
 TC SIZE          [%]    137.00             U


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        32.2  20.9  20.3  20.4  18.5  18.1  19.8  23.9  U  N  N  N  N  F  N  N
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]   33.0  56.0  52.0  43.0  36.0  28.0  22.0  27.0  U  N  N  N  U  U  U  U
 Potential [kt]        140.0 140.0 140.0 140.0 140.0 140.0 140.0 140.0  F  F  F  F  F  F  F  F
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]    58.0  30.0  18.0  11.0  16.0  20.0  16.0  38.0  N  N  U  U  U  U  U  N
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   62.0  59.0  56.0  53.0  48.0  51.0  52.0  55.0  N  U  U  U  U  U  U  U
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]  12.0   3.0   2.0   7.0   1.0   4.0   1.0  -2.0  U  N  N  N  N  N  N  N


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h        0.0%        0.3%        0.2%
 25kt / 24h        0.6%        5.8%        3.2%
 30kt / 24h        0.2%        1.6%        0.9%
 35kt / 24h        0.1%        1.3%        0.7%
 40kt / 24h        0.0%        1.3%        0.7%
 45kt / 36h        0.8%        9.0%        4.9%
 55kt / 36h        0.0%        1.9%        1.0%
 55kt / 48h        4.9%        6.1%        5.5%
 70kt / 48h        2.6%        2.4%        2.5%
 65kt / 72h       24.5%       11.5%       18.0%
 Convective Decapatation Guidance

 For SSTs greater than 27.5C

 Current sst along the future track = 28.74

 WP112023 230903 00UTC
 Storm Located at           :     29.60    141.90
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    25.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    25.00             U
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]    -5.00             F
 CORE SIZE        [km]    11.80             F
 TC SIZE          [%]    137.00             F


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        32.2  20.9  20.3  20.4  18.5  18.1  19.8  23.9  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   62.0  59.0  56.0  53.0  48.0  51.0  52.0  55.0  N  F  F  F  F  F  F  F
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]  12.0   3.0   2.0   7.0   1.0   4.0   1.0  -2.0  F  N  N  N  N  N  N  N


    Probabilities[%] of Storm Decapitation
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 -30kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%