Rapid Intensification Guidance

 WP112023 230903 06UTC
 Storm Located at           :     30.20    140.70
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    25.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    25.00             F
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]    -5.00             U
 CORE SIZE        [km]     8.20             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     15.00             U
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]      6.00             U
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      3.50             F
 TC SIZE          [%]    139.00             U


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        28.8  22.4  25.9  27.2  11.9  29.7  54.5  63.6  N  N  N  N  F  N VU VU
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]   38.0  38.0  18.0  22.0  24.0  37.0  18.0  46.0  U  U  U  U  U  U  U  N
 Potential [kt]        140.0 140.0 140.0 140.0 140.0 140.0 140.0 140.0  F  F  F  F  F  F  F  F
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]    18.0  34.0  18.0 -42.0  22.0  32.0  36.0  -4.0  U  N  U VU  U  N  N  U
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   65.0  66.0  61.0  57.0  51.0  56.0  55.0  44.0  N  N  N  U  U  U  U VU
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]   4.0   1.0   5.0   2.0   0.0   1.0  -4.0 -28.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  F VF


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h        0.0%        0.3%        0.2%
 25kt / 24h        0.5%        3.6%        2.0%
 30kt / 24h        0.3%        1.0%        0.6%
 35kt / 24h        0.0%        0.8%        0.4%
 40kt / 24h        0.0%        0.8%        0.4%
 45kt / 36h        0.4%        7.1%        3.7%
 55kt / 36h        0.0%        1.5%        0.8%
 55kt / 48h        1.7%        4.1%        2.9%
 70kt / 48h        0.4%        1.6%        1.0%
 65kt / 72h        1.4%        1.9%        1.6%
 Convective Decapatation Guidance

 For SSTs greater than 27.5C

 Current sst along the future track = 28.72

 WP112023 230903 06UTC
 Storm Located at           :     30.20    140.70
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    25.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    25.00             U
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]    -5.00             F
 CORE SIZE        [km]     8.20             F
 TC SIZE          [%]    139.00             F


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        28.8  22.4  25.9  27.2  11.9  29.7  54.5  63.6  N  N  N  N  U  N VF VF
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   65.0  66.0  61.0  57.0  51.0  56.0  55.0  44.0  N  N  N  F  F  F  F VF
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]   4.0   1.0   5.0   2.0   0.0   1.0  -4.0 -28.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  U VU


    Probabilities[%] of Storm Decapitation
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 -30kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%