Rapid Intensification Guidance

 WP112023 230903 12UTC
 Storm Located at           :     30.60    139.80
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    25.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    25.00             F
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]     0.00             N
 CORE SIZE        [km]     2.20             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     18.00             U
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]     12.00             U
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      3.30             F
 TC SIZE          [%]    117.00             N


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        23.3  27.3  21.6   9.1  23.0  45.2  57.5  57.5  N  N  N  F  N VU VU VU
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]   59.0  40.0  51.0  37.0  20.0  19.0  38.0   0.0  N  N  N  U  U  U  U  U
 Potential [kt]        140.0 140.0 140.0 140.0 140.0 140.0 140.0 140.0  F  F  F  F  F  F  F  F
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]    46.0 -10.0 -14.0   8.0  33.0  64.0   8.0   8.0  N  U  U  U  N  N  U  U
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   61.0  56.0  53.0  49.0  53.0  60.0  54.0  54.0  N  U  U  U  U  N  U  U
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]   2.0   9.0   5.0   2.0   5.0  -6.0 -14.0 -14.0  N  U  N  N  N  F VF VF


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h        0.1%        0.9%        0.5%
 25kt / 24h        1.2%       12.1%        6.7%
 30kt / 24h        0.6%        4.2%        2.4%
 35kt / 24h        0.4%        3.6%        2.0%
 40kt / 24h        0.0%        3.6%        1.8%
 45kt / 36h        2.5%       18.6%       10.6%
 55kt / 36h        0.0%        5.4%        2.7%
 55kt / 48h        3.0%        5.3%        4.2%
 70kt / 48h        1.3%        2.6%        2.0%
 65kt / 72h        1.5%        2.5%        2.0%
 Convective Decapatation Guidance

 For SSTs greater than 27.5C

 Current sst along the future track = 28.80

 WP112023 230903 12UTC
 Storm Located at           :     30.60    139.80
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    25.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    25.00             U
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]     0.00             N
 CORE SIZE        [km]     2.20             F
 TC SIZE          [%]    117.00             N


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        23.3  27.3  21.6   9.1  23.0  45.2  57.5  57.5  N  N  N  U  N VF VF VF
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   61.0  56.0  53.0  49.0  53.0  60.0  54.0  54.0  N  F  F  F  F  N  F  F
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]   2.0   9.0   5.0   2.0   5.0  -6.0 -14.0 -14.0  N  F  N  N  N  U VU VU


    Probabilities[%] of Storm Decapitation
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 -30kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%