Rapid Intensification Guidance

 WP112023 230903 18UTC
 Storm Located at           :     31.30    138.60
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    25.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    25.00             F
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]     0.00             N
 CORE SIZE        [km]     5.00             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     13.00            VU
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]      1.00             U
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      5.50             F
 TC SIZE          [%]    116.00             N


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        27.6  21.5  17.6  15.3  23.4  39.5  51.0  54.1  N  N  F  F  N  U VU VU
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]   18.0  16.0  18.0  21.0  20.0  43.0  37.0  35.0  U  U  U  U  U  N  U  U
 Potential [kt]        140.0 140.0 140.0 140.0 140.0 140.0 140.0 140.0  F  F  F  F  F  F  F  F
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]    11.0  -5.0 -19.0   0.0  30.0  13.0  -8.0   4.0  U  U  U  U  N  U  U  U
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   62.0  61.0  57.0  55.0  62.0  61.0  53.0  40.0  N  N  U  U  N  N  U VU
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]   6.0   3.0   6.0   5.0   2.0  -7.0 -29.0  -2.0  N  N  N  N  N  F VF  N


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h        0.1%        0.6%        0.4%
 25kt / 24h        0.6%        8.0%        4.3%
 30kt / 24h        0.2%        2.7%        1.5%
 35kt / 24h        0.2%        2.4%        1.3%
 40kt / 24h        0.0%        2.4%        1.2%
 45kt / 36h        0.9%       12.1%        6.5%
 55kt / 36h        0.0%        3.3%        1.7%
 55kt / 48h        1.2%        4.2%        2.7%
 70kt / 48h        0.3%        2.0%        1.1%
 65kt / 72h        0.8%        2.6%        1.7%
 Convective Decapatation Guidance

 For SSTs greater than 27.5C

 Current sst along the future track = 28.62

 WP112023 230903 18UTC
 Storm Located at           :     31.30    138.60
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    25.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    25.00             U
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]     0.00             N
 CORE SIZE        [km]     5.00             F
 TC SIZE          [%]    116.00             N


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        27.6  21.5  17.6  15.3  23.4  39.5  51.0  54.1  N  N  N  U  N  F VF VF
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   62.0  61.0  57.0  55.0  62.0  61.0  53.0  40.0  N  N  F  F  N  N  F VF
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]   6.0   3.0   6.0   5.0   2.0  -7.0 -29.0  -2.0  N  N  N  N  N  U VU  N


    Probabilities[%] of Storm Decapitation
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 -30kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%