Rapid Intensification Guidance WP112023 230904 00UTC Storm Located at : 31.80 137.00 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]: 20. Initial Conditions: Predictor Value Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt] 20.00 F 12-H DELTA VMAX [kt] -5.00 U CORE SIZE [km] 11.80 F CONVECTION <-50C [%] 6.00 VU CONVECTION <-60C [%] 1.00 U IR CORE SYMMETRY [K] 2.90 F TC SIZE [%] 123.00 N Forecast Conditions: Predictor Value Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 Wind Shear [kt] 26.0 14.9 9.7 12.9 40.1 60.4 82.3 82.3 N F F F U VU VU VU Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2] 22.0 28.0 26.0 24.0 10.0 5.0 18.0 0.0 U U U U U U U U Potential [kt] 145.0 145.0 145.0 145.0 145.0 145.0 145.0 145.0 F F F F F F F F 200mb Divg [10^6/s] -25.0 -7.0 30.0 46.0 75.0 58.0 37.0 37.0 VU U N N N N N N Humidity 700-500 hPa 54.0 49.0 51.0 53.0 54.0 48.0 36.0 36.0 U U U U U U VU VU T Advectio [10^6 K/s] 2.0 2.0 0.0 4.0 0.0 -12.0 -29.0 -29.0 N N N N N F VF VF Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification Thresholds LDA-Method LRE-Method CONSENSUS 20kt / 12h 0.0% 0.4% 0.2% 25kt / 24h 0.6% 7.6% 4.1% 30kt / 24h 0.2% 2.4% 1.3% 35kt / 24h 0.1% 2.0% 1.1% 40kt / 24h 0.0% 2.0% 1.0% 45kt / 36h 0.3% 8.0% 4.1% 55kt / 36h 0.0% 1.7% 0.9% 55kt / 48h 0.2% 1.6% 0.9% 70kt / 48h 0.1% 0.6% 0.4% 65kt / 72h 0.0% 0.4% 0.2% Convective Decapatation Guidance For SSTs greater than 27.5C Current sst along the future track = 28.82 WP112023 230904 00UTC Storm Located at : 31.80 137.00 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]: 20. Initial Conditions: Predictor Value Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt] 20.00 U 12-H DELTA VMAX [kt] -5.00 F CORE SIZE [km] 11.80 F TC SIZE [%] 123.00 N Forecast Conditions: Predictor Value Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 Wind Shear [kt] 26.0 14.9 9.7 12.9 40.1 60.4 82.3 82.3 N U U U F VF VF VF Humidity 700-500 hPa 54.0 49.0 51.0 53.0 54.0 48.0 36.0 36.0 F F F F F F VF VF T Advectio [10^6 K/s] 2.0 2.0 0.0 4.0 0.0 -12.0 -29.0 -29.0 N N N N N U VU VU Probabilities[%] of Storm Decapitation Thresholds LDA-Method LRE-Method CONSENSUS -30kt / 24h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%