Rapid Intensification Guidance

 WP112023 230904 06UTC
 Storm Located at           :     31.70    136.10
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    25.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    25.00             F
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]     0.00             N
 CORE SIZE        [km]    11.80             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     15.00             U
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]     10.00             U
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      3.50             F
 TC SIZE          [%]    126.00             N


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        18.6  10.7  13.9  18.6  49.8  75.7  66.5  71.0  N  F  F  N VU VU VU VU
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]   24.0  26.0  24.0  21.0  31.0  27.0  27.0  20.0  U  U  U  U  U  U  U  U
 Potential [kt]        140.0 140.0 140.0 140.0 140.0 140.0 140.0 140.0  F  F  F  F  F  F  F  F
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]   -17.0  36.0  49.0  57.0  88.0  49.0  31.0  -5.0  U  N  N  N  F  N  N  U
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   52.0  52.0  56.0  55.0  49.0  37.0  28.0  25.0  U  U  U  U  U VU VU VU
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]   0.0   1.0   2.0   3.0   1.0 -28.0 -37.0  -9.0  N  N  N  N  N VF VF  F


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h        0.1%        1.1%        0.6%
 25kt / 24h        1.2%       12.9%        7.1%
 30kt / 24h        0.6%        4.6%        2.6%
 35kt / 24h        0.4%        4.2%        2.3%
 40kt / 24h        0.0%        4.2%        2.1%
 45kt / 36h        0.8%       10.0%        5.4%
 55kt / 36h        0.0%        2.3%        1.2%
 55kt / 48h        0.1%        1.2%        0.6%
 70kt / 48h        0.1%        0.6%        0.3%
 65kt / 72h        0.1%        0.6%        0.3%
 Convective Decapatation Guidance

 For SSTs greater than 27.5C

 Current sst along the future track = 28.80

 WP112023 230904 06UTC
 Storm Located at           :     31.70    136.10
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    25.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    25.00             U
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]     0.00             N
 CORE SIZE        [km]    11.80             F
 TC SIZE          [%]    126.00             N


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        18.6  10.7  13.9  18.6  49.8  75.7  66.5  71.0  N  U  U  N VF VF VF VF
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   52.0  52.0  56.0  55.0  49.0  37.0  28.0  25.0  F  F  F  F  F VF VF VF
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]   0.0   1.0   2.0   3.0   1.0 -28.0 -37.0  -9.0  N  N  N  N  N VU VU  U


    Probabilities[%] of Storm Decapitation
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 -30kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%