Rapid Intensification Guidance WP112023 230904 12UTC Storm Located at : 31.60 134.20 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]: 25. Initial Conditions: Predictor Value Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt] 25.00 F 12-H DELTA VMAX [kt] 0.00 N CORE SIZE [km] 2.20 F CONVECTION <-50C [%] 5.00 VU CONVECTION <-60C [%] 0.00 U IR CORE SYMMETRY [K] 5.20 F TC SIZE [%] 104.00 N Forecast Conditions: Predictor Value Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 Wind Shear [kt] 9.7 11.3 23.3 36.6 59.7 82.5 54.3 41.1 F F N U VU VU VU VU Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2] 24.0 22.0 2.0 2.0 39.0 34.0 29.0 20.0 U U U U U U U U Potential [kt] 140.0 140.0 140.0 140.0 140.0 140.0 140.0 137.0 F F F F F F F F 200mb Divg [10^6/s] 30.0 24.0 46.0 75.0 105.0 39.0 141.0 79.0 N U N N F N VF N Humidity 700-500 hPa 50.0 52.0 55.0 54.0 51.0 45.0 51.0 44.0 U U U U U VU U VU T Advectio [10^6 K/s] 0.0 4.0 2.0 0.0 -14.0 0.0 -2.0 -5.0 N N N N VF N N F Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification Thresholds LDA-Method LRE-Method CONSENSUS 20kt / 12h 0.4% 1.9% 1.1% 25kt / 24h 0.9% 10.1% 5.5% 30kt / 24h 0.3% 3.4% 1.9% 35kt / 24h 0.2% 3.1% 1.6% 40kt / 24h 0.0% 3.1% 1.5% 45kt / 36h 0.3% 5.2% 2.8% 55kt / 36h 0.0% 1.0% 0.5% 55kt / 48h 0.0% 0.5% 0.2% 70kt / 48h 0.0% 0.2% 0.1% 65kt / 72h 0.7% 0.6% 0.6% Convective Decapatation Guidance For SSTs greater than 27.5C Current sst along the future track = 28.70 WP112023 230904 12UTC Storm Located at : 31.60 134.20 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]: 25. Initial Conditions: Predictor Value Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt] 25.00 U 12-H DELTA VMAX [kt] 0.00 N CORE SIZE [km] 2.20 F TC SIZE [%] 104.00 N Forecast Conditions: Predictor Value Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 Wind Shear [kt] 9.7 11.3 23.3 36.6 59.7 82.5 54.3 41.1 U U N F VF VF VF VF Humidity 700-500 hPa 50.0 52.0 55.0 54.0 51.0 45.0 51.0 44.0 F F F F F VF F VF T Advectio [10^6 K/s] 0.0 4.0 2.0 0.0 -14.0 0.0 -2.0 -5.0 N N N N VU N N U Probabilities[%] of Storm Decapitation Thresholds LDA-Method LRE-Method CONSENSUS -30kt / 24h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%