Rapid Intensification Guidance WP112023 230904 18UTC Storm Located at : 30.70 133.50 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]: 25. Initial Conditions: Predictor Value Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt] 25.00 F 12-H DELTA VMAX [kt] 0.00 N CORE SIZE [km] 3.00 F CONVECTION <-50C [%] 2.00 VU CONVECTION <-60C [%] 0.00 U IR CORE SYMMETRY [K] 3.30 F TC SIZE [%] 105.00 N Forecast Conditions: Predictor Value Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 Wind Shear [kt] 10.3 15.5 34.8 43.9 43.9 43.9 43.9 43.9 F F U VU VU VU VU VU Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2] 32.0 31.0 29.0 24.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 U U U U U U U U Potential [kt] 140.0 140.0 140.0 140.0 140.0 140.0 140.0 140.0 F F F F F F F F 200mb Divg [10^6/s] 34.0 41.0 61.0 76.0 76.0 76.0 76.0 76.0 N N N N N N N N Humidity 700-500 hPa 53.0 56.0 59.0 62.0 62.0 62.0 62.0 62.0 U U U N N N N N T Advectio [10^6 K/s] 2.0 6.0 0.0 5.0 5.0 5.0 5.0 5.0 N N N N N N N N Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification Thresholds LDA-Method LRE-Method CONSENSUS 20kt / 12h 0.4% 1.8% 1.1% 25kt / 24h 0.8% 7.8% 4.3% 30kt / 24h 0.2% 2.2% 1.2% 35kt / 24h 0.2% 2.0% 1.1% 40kt / 24h 0.0% 2.0% 1.0% 45kt / 36h 0.4% 5.2% 2.8% 55kt / 36h 0.0% 0.9% 0.5% 55kt / 48h 0.2% 1.5% 0.8% 70kt / 48h 0.1% 0.6% 0.3% 65kt / 72h 1.3% 1.5% 1.4% Convective Decapatation Guidance For SSTs greater than 27.5C Current sst along the future track = 28.82 WP112023 230904 18UTC Storm Located at : 30.70 133.50 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]: 25. Initial Conditions: Predictor Value Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt] 25.00 U 12-H DELTA VMAX [kt] 0.00 N CORE SIZE [km] 3.00 F TC SIZE [%] 105.00 N Forecast Conditions: Predictor Value Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 Wind Shear [kt] 10.3 15.5 34.8 43.9 43.9 43.9 43.9 43.9 U U F VF VF VF VF VF Humidity 700-500 hPa 53.0 56.0 59.0 62.0 62.0 62.0 62.0 62.0 F F F N N N N N T Advectio [10^6 K/s] 2.0 6.0 0.0 5.0 5.0 5.0 5.0 5.0 N N N N N N N N Probabilities[%] of Storm Decapitation Thresholds LDA-Method LRE-Method CONSENSUS -30kt / 24h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%