Rapid Intensification Guidance WP112023 230905 00UTC Storm Located at : 31.00 131.90 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]: 25. Initial Conditions: Predictor Value Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt] 25.00 F 12-H DELTA VMAX [kt] -5.00 U CORE SIZE [km] 11.00 F CONVECTION <-50C [%] 0.00 VU CONVECTION <-60C [%] 0.00 U IR CORE SYMMETRY [K] 1.40 F TC SIZE [%] 109.00 N Forecast Conditions: Predictor Value Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 Wind Shear [kt] 15.0 34.3 41.6 44.4 48.6 39.5 43.6 41.8 F U VU VU VU U VU VU Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2] 27.0 26.0 27.0 27.0 34.0 27.0 17.0 39.0 U U U U U U U U Potential [kt] 140.0 140.0 140.0 140.0 140.0 140.0 137.0 140.0 F F F F F F F F 200mb Divg [10^6/s] 43.0 63.0 77.0 93.0 40.0 121.0 54.0 18.0 N N N F N F N U Humidity 700-500 hPa 57.0 60.0 63.0 63.0 57.0 54.0 47.0 47.0 U N N N U U VU VU T Advectio [10^6 K/s] 1.0 -1.0 2.0 0.0 0.0 2.0 1.0 12.0 N N N N N N N U Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification Thresholds LDA-Method LRE-Method CONSENSUS 20kt / 12h 0.0% 0.5% 0.3% 25kt / 24h 0.5% 3.0% 1.7% 30kt / 24h 0.3% 0.7% 0.5% 35kt / 24h 0.0% 0.6% 0.3% 40kt / 24h 0.0% 0.6% 0.3% 45kt / 36h 0.1% 1.5% 0.8% 55kt / 36h 0.0% 0.2% 0.1% 55kt / 48h 0.1% 0.6% 0.4% 70kt / 48h 0.1% 0.2% 0.1% 65kt / 72h 3.6% 1.0% 2.3% Convective Decapatation Guidance For SSTs greater than 27.5C Current sst along the future track = 28.80 WP112023 230905 00UTC Storm Located at : 31.00 131.90 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]: 25. Initial Conditions: Predictor Value Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt] 25.00 U 12-H DELTA VMAX [kt] -5.00 F CORE SIZE [km] 11.00 F TC SIZE [%] 109.00 N Forecast Conditions: Predictor Value Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 Wind Shear [kt] 15.0 34.3 41.6 44.4 48.6 39.5 43.6 41.8 U F VF VF VF F VF VF Humidity 700-500 hPa 57.0 60.0 63.0 63.0 57.0 54.0 47.0 47.0 F N N N F F VF VF T Advectio [10^6 K/s] 1.0 -1.0 2.0 0.0 0.0 2.0 1.0 12.0 N N N N N N N F Probabilities[%] of Storm Decapitation Thresholds LDA-Method LRE-Method CONSENSUS -30kt / 24h 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%