Rapid Intensification Guidance

 WP112023 230905 06UTC
 Storm Located at           :     30.90    132.10
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    25.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    25.00             F
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]     0.00             N
 CORE SIZE        [km]    11.40             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]      0.00            VU
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]      0.00             U
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      1.30             F
 TC SIZE          [%]    112.00             N


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        28.6  36.7  41.7  49.2  38.6  38.2  42.8  52.3  N  U VU VU  U  U VU VU
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]   30.0  30.0  31.0  31.0  55.0  21.0  17.0  19.0  U  U  U  U  N  U  U  U
 Potential [kt]        140.0 140.0 140.0 140.0 140.0 140.0 139.3 137.0  F  F  F  F  F  F  F  F
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]    39.0  72.0  54.0  42.0  45.0  78.0  20.0  -7.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  U  U
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   65.0  68.0  64.0  58.0  55.0  48.0  48.0  48.0  N  N  N  U  U  U  U  U
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]   0.0   4.0   1.0  -1.0   1.0  -7.0   6.0   0.0  N  N  N  N  N  F  N  N


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h        0.1%        0.5%        0.3%
 25kt / 24h        0.5%        2.6%        1.6%
 30kt / 24h        0.3%        0.6%        0.4%
 35kt / 24h        0.0%        0.5%        0.2%
 40kt / 24h        0.0%        0.5%        0.2%
 45kt / 36h        0.1%        2.1%        1.1%
 55kt / 36h        0.0%        0.3%        0.1%
 55kt / 48h        0.1%        0.8%        0.4%
 70kt / 48h        0.1%        0.3%        0.2%
 65kt / 72h        1.0%        0.9%        1.0%
 Convective Decapatation Guidance

 For SSTs greater than 27.5C

 Current sst along the future track = 28.88

 WP112023 230905 06UTC
 Storm Located at           :     30.90    132.10
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    25.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    25.00             U
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]     0.00             N
 CORE SIZE        [km]    11.40             F
 TC SIZE          [%]    112.00             N


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        28.6  36.7  41.7  49.2  38.6  38.2  42.8  52.3  N  F VF VF  F  F VF VF
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   65.0  68.0  64.0  58.0  55.0  48.0  48.0  48.0  N  N  N  F  F  F  F  F
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]   0.0   4.0   1.0  -1.0   1.0  -7.0   6.0   0.0  N  N  N  N  N  U  N  N


    Probabilities[%] of Storm Decapitation
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 -30kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%