Rapid Intensification Guidance

 WP122023 230906 00UTC
 Storm Located at           :     25.60    133.10
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    35.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    35.00             F
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]    10.00             F
 CORE SIZE        [km]     2.20             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     23.00             U
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]     13.00             U
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      4.60             F
 TC SIZE          [%]     93.00             N


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        16.0  18.0  31.4  34.0  49.2  39.0  38.6  33.5  F  F  U  U VU  U  U  U
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]   32.0  31.0  47.0  29.0  22.0  23.0  14.0   1.0  U  U  N  U  U  U  U  U
 Potential [kt]        130.0 130.0 130.0 130.0 129.3 127.0 122.3  99.8  F  F  F  F  F  N  N  N
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]    33.0   2.0  29.0  71.0  43.0  32.0 -36.0  60.0  N  U  N  N  N  N VU  N
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   56.0  56.0  57.0  54.0  48.0  52.0  54.0  50.0  U  U  U  U  U  U  U  U
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]  -5.0  -2.0   0.0   0.0   8.0  18.0  20.0  14.0  F  N  N  N  U VU VU  U


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h        3.6%        4.7%        4.1%
 25kt / 24h        6.4%       20.1%       13.2%
 30kt / 24h        4.3%        7.8%        6.0%
 35kt / 24h        2.2%        7.7%        5.0%
 40kt / 24h        1.6%        7.7%        4.7%
 45kt / 36h        2.1%       11.6%        6.9%
 55kt / 36h        0.0%        2.9%        1.4%
 55kt / 48h        0.3%        2.6%        1.5%
 70kt / 48h        0.2%        1.3%        0.7%
 65kt / 72h        0.5%        1.6%        1.1%
 Convective Decapatation Guidance

 For SSTs greater than 27.5C

 Current sst along the future track = 29.02

 WP122023 230906 00UTC
 Storm Located at           :     25.60    133.10
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    35.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    35.00             U
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]    10.00             U
 CORE SIZE        [km]     2.20             F
 TC SIZE          [%]     93.00             N


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        16.0  18.0  31.4  34.0  49.2  39.0  38.6  33.5  U  N  N  F VF  F  F  F
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   56.0  56.0  57.0  54.0  48.0  52.0  54.0  50.0  F  F  F  F  F  F  F  F
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]  -5.0  -2.0   0.0   0.0   8.0  18.0  20.0  14.0  U  N  N  N  F VF VF  F


    Probabilities[%] of Storm Decapitation
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 -30kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%