Rapid Intensification Guidance

 WP122023 230906 06UTC
 Storm Located at           :     26.50    134.30
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    35.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    35.00             F
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]     5.00             N
 CORE SIZE        [km]     2.20             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     29.00             U
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]     23.00             U
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      4.70             F
 TC SIZE          [%]     99.00             N


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        19.4  27.8  30.7  39.0  42.8  45.0  38.6  37.1  N  N  U  U VU VU  U  U
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]   28.0  33.0  55.0  35.0  21.0  15.0   1.0   1.0  U  U  N  U  U  U  U  U
 Potential [kt]        130.0 130.0 130.0 130.0 129.3 122.3  99.8  98.0  F  F  F  F  F  N  N  N
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]    14.0  47.0  58.0  66.0  47.0   2.0  29.0  25.0  U  N  N  N  N  U  N  U
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   52.0  54.0  54.0  49.0  50.0  51.0  52.0  47.0  U  U  U  U  U  U  U VU
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]   0.0  -2.0   3.0   6.0  14.0  10.0  19.0   9.0  N  N  N  N  U  U VU  U


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h        1.7%        2.9%        2.3%
 25kt / 24h        4.4%       14.8%        9.6%
 30kt / 24h        2.1%        5.3%        3.7%
 35kt / 24h        1.0%        5.0%        3.0%
 40kt / 24h        0.7%        5.0%        2.9%
 45kt / 36h        1.5%        8.9%        5.2%
 55kt / 36h        0.0%        2.0%        1.0%
 55kt / 48h        0.3%        2.2%        1.3%
 70kt / 48h        0.1%        0.8%        0.5%
 65kt / 72h        0.8%        1.1%        1.0%
 Convective Decapatation Guidance

 For SSTs greater than 27.5C

 Current sst along the future track = 29.02

 WP122023 230906 06UTC
 Storm Located at           :     26.50    134.30
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    35.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    35.00             U
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]     5.00             N
 CORE SIZE        [km]     2.20             F
 TC SIZE          [%]     99.00             N


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        19.4  27.8  30.7  39.0  42.8  45.0  38.6  37.1  N  N  N  F VF VF  F  F
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   52.0  54.0  54.0  49.0  50.0  51.0  52.0  47.0  F  F  F  F  F  F  F VF
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]   0.0  -2.0   3.0   6.0  14.0  10.0  19.0   9.0  N  N  N  N  F  F VF  F


    Probabilities[%] of Storm Decapitation
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 -30kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%