Rapid Intensification Guidance

 WP122023 230906 18UTC
 Storm Located at           :     28.60    135.60
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    40.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    40.00             F
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]     5.00             N
 CORE SIZE        [km]     9.40             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     22.00             U
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]     12.00             U
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      3.80             F
 TC SIZE          [%]    105.00             N


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        32.6  38.9  41.2  42.6  40.1  43.0  53.5  61.7  U  U VU VU  U VU VU VU
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]   50.0  30.0  15.0  20.0  15.0  17.0  26.0   0.0  N  U  U  U  U  U  U  U
 Potential [kt]        125.0 125.0 125.0 125.0 125.0  98.5  86.0  48.7  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  U
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]    51.0  51.0  64.0  65.0  50.0  19.0  52.0  31.0  N  N  N  N  N  U  N  N
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   52.0  49.0  47.0  48.0  47.0  44.0  42.0  44.0  U  U VU  U VU VU VU VU
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]   2.0   5.0   4.0   8.0  26.0  21.0  20.0  22.0  N  N  N  U VU VU VU VU


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h        1.1%        1.1%        1.1%
 25kt / 24h        1.0%        5.0%        3.0%
 30kt / 24h        0.5%        1.4%        0.9%
 35kt / 24h        0.3%        1.3%        0.8%
 40kt / 24h        0.1%        1.3%        0.7%
 45kt / 36h        0.3%        3.1%        1.7%
 55kt / 36h        0.0%        0.5%        0.3%
 55kt / 48h        0.0%        0.5%        0.3%
 70kt / 48h        0.0%        0.2%        0.1%
 65kt / 72h        0.0%        0.1%        0.0%
 Convective Decapatation Guidance

 For SSTs greater than 27.5C

 Current sst along the future track = 28.74

 WP122023 230906 18UTC
 Storm Located at           :     28.60    135.60
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    40.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    40.00             U
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]     5.00             N
 CORE SIZE        [km]     9.40             F
 TC SIZE          [%]    105.00             N


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        32.6  38.9  41.2  42.6  40.1  43.0  53.5  61.7  F  F VF VF  F VF VF VF
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   52.0  49.0  47.0  48.0  47.0  44.0  42.0  44.0  F  F VF  F VF VF VF VF
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]   2.0   5.0   4.0   8.0  26.0  21.0  20.0  22.0  N  N  N  F VF VF VF VF


    Probabilities[%] of Storm Decapitation
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 -30kt / 24h        0.4%        0.2%        0.3%