Rapid Intensification Guidance

 WP122023 230907 00UTC
 Storm Located at           :     29.70    136.40
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    40.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    40.00             F
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]     0.00             N
 CORE SIZE        [km]    11.00             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]      1.00            VU
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]      0.00             U
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      3.80             F
 TC SIZE          [%]    116.00             N


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        39.0  42.8  42.0  38.9  39.4  43.7  55.1  63.2  U VU VU  U  U VU VU VU
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]   35.0  13.0  15.0  20.0  19.0  19.0   0.0   0.0  U  U  U  U  U  U  U  U
 Potential [kt]        125.0 125.0 125.0 125.0 125.0  98.5  58.2  47.8  N  N  N  N  N  N  U  U
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]    51.0  63.0  65.0  58.0  -5.0 -12.0  54.0  45.0  N  N  N  N  U  U  N  N
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   49.0  46.0  47.0  46.0  46.0  43.0  43.0  44.0  U VU VU VU VU VU VU VU
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]   6.0   4.0   8.0  25.0  33.0  11.0  24.0  27.0  N  N  U VU VU  U VU VU


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h        0.2%        0.3%        0.2%
 25kt / 24h        0.5%        1.9%        1.2%
 30kt / 24h        0.3%        0.5%        0.4%
 35kt / 24h        0.1%        0.4%        0.2%
 40kt / 24h        0.0%        0.4%        0.2%
 45kt / 36h        0.1%        1.0%        0.5%
 55kt / 36h        0.0%        0.1%        0.1%
 55kt / 48h        0.0%        0.2%        0.1%
 70kt / 48h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 65kt / 72h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 Convective Decapatation Guidance

 For SSTs greater than 27.5C

 Current sst along the future track = 28.86

 WP122023 230907 00UTC
 Storm Located at           :     29.70    136.40
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    40.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    40.00             U
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]     0.00             N
 CORE SIZE        [km]    11.00             F
 TC SIZE          [%]    116.00             N


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        39.0  42.8  42.0  38.9  39.4  43.7  55.1  63.2  F VF VF  F  F VF VF VF
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   49.0  46.0  47.0  46.0  46.0  43.0  43.0  44.0  F VF VF VF VF VF VF VF
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]   6.0   4.0   8.0  25.0  33.0  11.0  24.0  27.0  N  N  F VF VF  F VF VF


    Probabilities[%] of Storm Decapitation
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 -30kt / 24h        7.0%        0.3%        3.7%