Rapid Intensification Guidance

 WP122023 230907 06UTC
 Storm Located at           :     30.90    137.00
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    40.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    40.00             F
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]     0.00             N
 CORE SIZE        [km]     6.20             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     46.00             N
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]     25.00             U
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      7.00             F
 TC SIZE          [%]    124.00             N


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        43.3  42.0  37.0  42.0  46.1  48.6  55.0  62.3 VU VU  U VU VU VU VU VU
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]   13.0  14.0  21.0  15.0   7.0   3.0  29.0   0.0  U  U  U  U  U  U  U  U
 Potential [kt]        125.0 125.0 125.0 125.0 125.0 117.3 104.4  55.9  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  U
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]    64.0  65.0  57.0  49.0  19.0  53.0  34.0  -6.0  N  N  N  N  U  N  N  U
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   50.0  51.0  50.0  51.0  51.0  54.0  53.0  42.0  U  U  U  U  U  U  U VU
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]   5.0   8.0  25.0  25.0  13.0  13.0   8.0   6.0  N  U VU VU  U  U  U  N


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h        0.1%        0.4%        0.3%
 25kt / 24h        0.6%        3.3%        2.0%
 30kt / 24h        0.2%        1.0%        0.6%
 35kt / 24h        0.2%        0.8%        0.5%
 40kt / 24h        0.0%        0.8%        0.4%
 45kt / 36h        0.1%        1.4%        0.7%
 55kt / 36h        0.0%        0.2%        0.1%
 55kt / 48h        0.0%        0.4%        0.2%
 70kt / 48h        0.0%        0.1%        0.0%
 65kt / 72h        0.0%        0.1%        0.0%
 Convective Decapatation Guidance

 For SSTs greater than 27.5C

 Current sst along the future track = 28.92

 WP122023 230907 06UTC
 Storm Located at           :     30.90    137.00
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    40.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    40.00             U
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]     0.00             N
 CORE SIZE        [km]     6.20             F
 TC SIZE          [%]    124.00             N


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        43.3  42.0  37.0  42.0  46.1  48.6  55.0  62.3 VF VF  F VF VF VF VF VF
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   50.0  51.0  50.0  51.0  51.0  54.0  53.0  42.0  F  F  F  F  F  F  F VF
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]   5.0   8.0  25.0  25.0  13.0  13.0   8.0   6.0  N  F VF VF  F  F  F  N


    Probabilities[%] of Storm Decapitation
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 -30kt / 24h       16.8%        0.4%        8.6%