Rapid Intensification Guidance

 WP122023 230907 12UTC
 Storm Located at           :     32.00    137.20
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    40.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    40.00             F
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]     0.00             N
 CORE SIZE        [km]     3.00             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     45.00             N
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]     35.00             N
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      5.40             F
 TC SIZE          [%]    128.00             U


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        42.0  38.3  40.7  46.1  42.7  53.0  53.0  53.0 VU  U VU VU VU VU VU VU
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]   13.0  17.0  17.0  22.0  10.0  31.0   0.0   0.0  U  U  U  U  U  U  U  U
 Potential [kt]        125.0 125.0 125.0 125.0 125.0 108.6 108.6 108.6  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]    65.0  58.0  50.0  -5.0 -12.0  57.0  57.0  57.0  N  N  N  U  U  N  N  N
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   45.0  45.0  46.0  44.0  42.0  45.0  45.0  45.0 VU VU VU VU VU VU VU VU
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]   8.0  18.0  25.0  27.0  13.0  16.0  16.0  16.0  U VU VU VU  U  U  U  U


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h        0.1%        0.4%        0.3%
 25kt / 24h        0.6%        2.6%        1.6%
 30kt / 24h        0.3%        0.7%        0.5%
 35kt / 24h        0.1%        0.6%        0.4%
 40kt / 24h        0.0%        0.6%        0.3%
 45kt / 36h        0.1%        1.2%        0.6%
 55kt / 36h        0.0%        0.2%        0.1%
 55kt / 48h        0.0%        0.3%        0.1%
 70kt / 48h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 65kt / 72h        0.0%        0.1%        0.0%
 Convective Decapatation Guidance

 For SSTs greater than 27.5C

 Current sst along the future track = 28.92

 WP122023 230907 12UTC
 Storm Located at           :     32.00    137.20
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    40.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    40.00             U
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]     0.00             N
 CORE SIZE        [km]     3.00             F
 TC SIZE          [%]    128.00             N


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        42.0  38.3  40.7  46.1  42.7  53.0  53.0  53.0 VF  F VF VF VF VF VF VF
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   45.0  45.0  46.0  44.0  42.0  45.0  45.0  45.0 VF VF VF VF VF VF VF VF
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]   8.0  18.0  25.0  27.0  13.0  16.0  16.0  16.0  F VF VF VF  F  F  F  F


    Probabilities[%] of Storm Decapitation
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 -30kt / 24h       43.1%        0.7%       21.9%