Rapid Intensification Guidance

 WP122023 230909 00UTC
 Storm Located at           :     34.70    138.60
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    20.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    20.00             F
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]   -10.00             U
 CORE SIZE        [km]     8.20             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]      0.00            VU
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]      0.00             U
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      0.90             F
 TC SIZE          [%]    132.00             U


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        32.7  37.5  38.2  41.0  43.3  47.9  52.1  60.3  U  U  U VU VU VU VU VU
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]    5.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0  U  U  U  U  U  U  U  U
 Potential [kt]        113.0  93.6  85.4  73.8  64.1  39.7  27.0  23.8  N  N  N  U  U  U VU VU
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]    43.0  25.0  41.0  31.0   1.0   3.0  13.0  85.0  N  U  N  N  U  U  U  F
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   59.0  58.0  59.0  57.0  52.0  51.0  57.0  65.0  U  U  U  U  U  U  U  N
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]  21.0  28.0  27.0  32.0  24.0  28.0  51.0  36.0 VU VU VU VU VU VU VU VU


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 25kt / 24h        0.2%        0.0%        0.1%
 30kt / 24h        0.2%        0.0%        0.1%
 35kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 40kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 45kt / 36h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 55kt / 36h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 55kt / 48h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 70kt / 48h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 65kt / 72h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
Decapatation Guidance NOT VALID
Thermodyanmic Conditions Unfavorable for Intense Typhoons
 Convective Decapatation Guidance

 For SSTs greater than 27.5C

 Current sst along the future track = 26.00

 WP122023 230909 00UTC
 Storm Located at           :     34.70    138.60
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    20.