Rapid Intensification Guidance

 WP132023 230925 06UTC
 Storm Located at           :     15.90    109.50
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    25.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    25.00             F
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]     5.00             N
 CORE SIZE        [km]    10.60             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     46.00             N
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]     28.00             U
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      9.30             F
 TC SIZE          [%]    149.00             U


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        17.7  19.2  27.4  29.5  21.5  23.3  17.3  20.2  F  N  N  N  N  N  F  N
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]   41.0  66.0  36.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   6.0  25.0  N  N  U  U  U  U  U  U
 Potential [kt]        140.0 140.0 140.0 140.0 140.0 140.0 140.0 140.0  F  F  F  F  F  F  F  F
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]    76.0  66.0  67.0  95.0  48.0  95.0  84.0 110.0  N  N  N  F  N  F  N  F
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   81.0  80.0  81.0  84.0  91.0  90.0  90.0  88.0  F  F  F  F VF VF VF VF
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]   1.0   0.0   2.0   2.0   2.0   4.0   1.0   4.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h        1.2%        2.9%        2.0%
 25kt / 24h        8.2%       23.6%       15.9%
 30kt / 24h        2.7%        9.7%        6.2%
 35kt / 24h        2.2%        8.9%        5.5%
 40kt / 24h        0.0%        8.9%        4.5%
 45kt / 36h        4.5%       29.8%       17.2%
 55kt / 36h        0.0%       11.7%        5.8%
 55kt / 48h        8.0%       14.9%       11.5%
 70kt / 48h        1.3%       10.4%        5.8%
 65kt / 72h       12.0%       33.2%       22.6%
 Convective Decapatation Guidance

 For SSTs greater than 27.5C

 Current sst along the future track = 30.26

 WP132023 230925 06UTC
 Storm Located at           :     15.90    109.50
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    25.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    25.00             U
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]     5.00             N
 CORE SIZE        [km]    10.60             F
 TC SIZE          [%]    149.00             F


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        17.7  19.2  27.4  29.5  21.5  23.3  17.3  20.2  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   81.0  80.0  81.0  84.0  91.0  90.0  90.0  88.0  U  U  U  U VU VU VU VU
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]   1.0   0.0   2.0   2.0   2.0   4.0   1.0   4.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N


    Probabilities[%] of Storm Decapitation
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 -30kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%